Ernesto Leaves Cuba and Heads toward Florida

At 5:00 a.m., EDT, Tuesday, the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near 22.6 north and 78.9 west. It is just off the Cuban shoreline and is about 235 miles south-southeast of Miami, Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Ernesto was moving to the northwest at near 14 mph. The surface pressure is 1005 millibars or 29.68 inches.

A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch is in effect for the southern Peninsula of Florida from New Smyrna Beach southward on the east coast, and from Bonita Beach southward along the west coast. A tropical storm watch is in effect from Bonita Beach northward to Englewood on the Florida west coast. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch also remains in effect for Lake Okeechobee and all of the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch also remains in effect for Anddros Island in the northwestern Bahamas, the Biminis and Grand Bahama Island. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Holguin, Las Tunas and Camaguey and the Ragged Islands and Great Exuma Island in the central Bahamas.

As of Tuesday morning, Ernesto was just off the Cuban coastline on the eastern side of the island. The storm has been interacting with the 4,000-foot mountains of eastern Cuba and a weak upper-level low just southeast of Miami, Florida. This has caused the lower-level circulation around the storm to become poorly organized, and the upper-level low has fed drier air into the system causing thunderstorms to be even more disorganized. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported estimated surface winds of near tropical storm strength just of the northeastern Cuban coast during the late afternoon and evening hours of Monday. So the system remains a very weak tropical storm. Although surface reports over northeastern Cuba show nothing near tropical storm strength. We expect the lower-level circulation to redevelop along or just off shore of the northern Cuban coast this morning and into this afternoon. As the lower-level part of this system gets back over water, it should start to organize and strengthen again. The broader circulation around the storm will continue to interact with Cuba through Tuesday morning and that will limit how strong the system can become initially. However, once the system becomes better organized in the lower levels, the upper levels should shift away from Cuba due to the light upper-level winds. Once the entire system is over water, which will be around midday or early afternoon Tuesday, there is a good chance it will continue to strengthen. However, due to the long lasting encounter with land there is only a small chance Ernesto can become a hurricane before reaching the south Florida coast later Tuesday night. Ernesto will track west-northwest then more northwest during Tuesday. That will put the storm's center just south of Marathon Florida in the central Keys Tuesday evening.

An oval-shaped, upper-level high pressure area is currently located over the Southeast U.S. and northern Florida. This ridge will weaken and move eastward as a strong upper-level system moves east from the Plains. That upper-level trough has turned out to be much stronger and is moving faster than thought a few days ago. That is why the forecasted movement of Ernesto has changed so much over the past three days. The upper-level high is expected to weaken slowly and move east slowly today. This will allow Ernesto to move into South Florida late Tuesday night between Miami and Key West and move northward through the peninsula during the day Wednesday. This will lead to rain and thunderstorms over South Florida tonight and over central and South Florida during Wednesday and early Wednesday night.

Ernesto is expected to make a second United States landfall, along the Carolina coastline Friday. Ernestos will bring heavy rainfall to the northern Carolinas into the Virginias and toward the Northeast later this week.

The latest forecast, issued at 8 a.m. EDT, predicted that Ernesto would hit South Florida as a Category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds of about 80 mph. But forecasters reminded residents that intensity is very difficult to predict and Ernesto could be stronger when it arrives.

One reliable computer model favored ''the possibility of Ernesto becoming a Category 2 or even a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall along the Florida coast,'' according to forecaster Stacy Stewart of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County.

Hispaniola Puts a Beating on Ernesto - South Florida Be Prepared

A hurricane warning is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to the southwest tip of Haiti. A hurricane warning also remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Ranma, Olguin, Las Tunas and Camaguey. A tropical storm watch is now in effect for the Cayman Islands, while a tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica. A hurricane watch is also in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. The tropical storm warning is now in effect for Ragged Island and Great Exuma in the central Bahamas. A hurricane watch is now in effect for Andros Island and the northwestern Bahamas.

Ernesto continues to take a hit from Hispaniola as downsloping flow off of the western mountains of Haiti continues to entrain dry air into the circulation, causing it to remain at tropical storm strength. An upper level trough of low pressure on a west-southwest track across the Bahamas is shearing convection to the northeast of Ernesto and we may see another jump to the north of the center of circulation which may have implications on south Florida later Tuesday. Ernesto should track to the northwest away from Haiti Sunday night and over open waters and so could strengthen again into a hurricane before affecting the southern coast of eastern Cuba early Monday. It should weaken again as it interacts with Cuba Monday afternoon and Monday night, then it should enter the Florida straits on Tuesday, possibly as a tropical storm or even a depression. Strengthening is likely again as it crosses the Florida straits and our track currently takes Ernesto to the west coast of Florida Wednesday afternoon as a hurricane, although track farther to the east is possible. A combination of an upper trough of low pressure that will dig southeast across the Deep South and a retreating mid-level ridge of high pressure eastward into the southwest Atlantic will be the steering factor that takes Ernesto on a north to northeast track from western Florida to near the Carolina coast Wednesday through Friday. Model consensus is to intensify Ernesto near the southeast Coast later in the week. Hurricane conditions will be possible across the Keys Tuesday and Tuesday night, southwest Florida Tuesday night into Wednesday, and across western Florida during the day Wednesday. If Ernesto were to track farther east, then widespread heavy rain and possible hurricane conditions could affect the northwest Bahamas and south Florida later Tuesday into Wednesday. A track farther to the west across the Gulf of Mexico could lead to futher strengthening and a bigger impact upon landfall.

There is one other feature to watch in the tropical Atlantic today. Weak low pressure is centered in the open Atlantic near 18 north, 33 west, drifting westward at about 12 knots. There are just a few thunderstorms present near this area of low pressure; dry air and dust from the Sahara are currently preventing development. However, conditions will gradually become more favorable as it tracks westward, so development is possible here in a few days' time.

Hispaniola Puts a Beating on Ernesto - Eyes South Florida

A hurricane warning is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to the southwest tip of Haiti. A hurricane warning is also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Ranma, Olguin, Las Tunas and Camaguey. A tropical storm watch is now in effect for the Cayman Islands, while a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A hurricane watch is also in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas.

At 8 p.m., EDT, Sunday, the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near 18.2 north and 74.4 west. It is very near the southwestern tip of Haiti or about 140 miles south-southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Ernesto was moving to the northwest at near 7 mph. The surface pressure is 1004 millibars of 29.65 inches.

Ernesto took a hit from Hispaniola as downsloping flow off of the mountains caused drier air to become entrained into the circulation so it weakened to a tropical storm. It will track to the northwest away from Haiti tonight and over open waters and could strengthen again into a hurricane before affecting southeast Cuba tomorrow. It should weaken again as it interacts with Cuba tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, then it should enter the Florida straits on Tuesday, possibly as a tropical storm or even a depression. Strengthening is likely again as it crosses the Florida straits and our track currently takes Ernesto to the west coast of Florida Wednesday afternoon as a hurricane. A combination of an upper trough of low pressure digging southeast across the Deep South and a retreating mid-level ridge of high pressure eastward into the southwest Atlantic will be the steering factor that takes Ernesto on a north to northeast track from western Florida to near the Carolina coast Wednesday through Friday. Model consensus is to intensify Ernesto near the southeast Coast later in the week. Hurricane conditions will be possible across the Keys Tuesday and Tuesday night, likely across southwest Florida Tuesday night into Wednesday, and across western Florida during the day Wednesday. If Ernesto were to track farther east, then widespread heavy rain and strong winds could affect much of the peninsula from south to north later Tuesday into Wednesday. If it were to track farther west and stay over the open Gulf longer, it could strengthen even more and have a bigger impact at landfall.

Ernesto will continue to cause life-threatening heavy flooding rains and mudslides over Hispaniola through Sunday night, especially across Haiti. These conditions will move into southeast Cuba Sunday night and spread from east to west across the eastern half of the island during the day Monday. Damaging winds will mainly affect coastal areas and the higher terrain through Monday. Coastal flooding from a storm surge will continue along the south coast of Haiti Sunday night and should affect the southern coast of eastern Cuba later Sunday night into Monday, including Guantanomo Bay. Heavy flooding rains, damaging winds, and coastal flooding should spread into the Keys on Tuesday and then across southern Florida Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

As of 5 p.m., EDT, Sunday, the center of Tropical Depression Debby was near 31.5 north and 48.6 west, or 1,300 miles west-southwest of the Azores. Debby was moving to the north at 17 mph with estimated maximum-sustained winds of 30 mph. The central pressure is estimated as being around 1012 millibars, or 29.88 inches. Debby will curve to the northeast over the next few days as it loses tropical characteristics, but it will become part of a significant storm system over the northern Atlantic.

There is one other feature to watch in the tropical Atlantic today. Weak low pressure is centered in the open Atlantic near 18 north, 33 west, drifting westward at about 12 knots. There are just a few thunderstorms present near this area of low pressure; dry air and dust from the Sahara are currently preventing development. However, conditions will gradually become more favorable as it tracks westward, so development is possible here in a few days' time.

Hurricane ERNESTO Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Cone

Hurricane Ernesto Threatens South Florida

Hurricane Ernesto gathers strength as it steams through the central Caribbean toward Jamaica and threatens to enter the Gulf of Mexico as the first hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic season. Ernesto could grow into a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday, menacing a broad swath of the Gulf Coast including hurricane-ravaged New Orleans, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami forecasts. Category 3 hurricane Katrina struck the city a year ago Tuesday. Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba issue hurricane watches as the storm's winds grow to near 60 mph. At 11 p.m. Ernesto is about 125 miles southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and moving west-northwest at about 14 mph.

Visitors ordered to leave the Keys because of Hurricane Ernesto

Visitors ordered to leave the Keys because of Hurricane Ernesto
KEY WEST, Fla. — Visitors were ordered to leave the Florida Keys on Sunday because of the possibility that Hurricane Ernesto could threaten the island chain, emergency officials said.

The Monroe County Emergency Management office told tourists with immediate plans to travel to the Keys to postpone their trips and ordered those already in the island chain to leave.

All travel trailers and recreational vehicles also were ordered off the islands immediately.

Max Mayfield to retire as director of hurricane center

Max Mayfield, whose calm voice but resolute manner guided South Floridians and millions of others through some of the worst hurricane seasons in history, will retire as director of the National Hurricane Center and intends to leave in January, he told his staff this afternoon.

''No one event has caused this,'' he told shocked forecasters during the usual afternoon ''map discussion'' to review conditions in the hurricane zone. 'I've been here 34 years and as Forrest Gump said in the movie, `I'm tired and I want to go home.' ''

The staff expected to hear only about Tropical Storm Debby and Tropical Depression 5, which is expected to grow into Tropical Storm Ernesto as it moves through the Caribbean.

Along with that, they heard the bombshell announcement, which took less than a minute.
''My last day is going to be Jan. 3,'' he told his forecasters and support staff. ``Let's give it everything we've got. Now, get back to work.''

Navy Lt. Dave Roberts, a forecaster, said: ''Four more years!'' The employees responded with a brief burst of applause. Then, they returned to work.

Mayfield, 57, has led the hurricane center and its forecasters since May 2000.He said he plans to remain in charge during the rest of the season, retire after 34 years of federal service and then consider his options.

''I don't have anything lined up,'' he said, ``and I don't want to even think about it until I get some rest.''

In the recent past, he has told friends that last year's record season and the busy season before that left him worn and that the demands of running a high-profile government operation weighed heavily on him.

Still, the decision had to have been difficult.

Shortly before accepting the post six years ago, Mayfield told The Miami Herald that it was the only job he ever really wanted.

''I'm not going anywhere,'' he said back then. ``I'll never leave the hurricane center.''This afternoon, he announced that he has changed his mind.

''Well, I was always going to retire sometime,'' he said.

Asked about the strain, Mayfield said:``It's not just the season. The battle against the hurricane is waged during the off season too, so it all takes a toll.''

He said he has given his superiors at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service plenty of notice so a successor can be chosen in a ``seamless transition.''

NOAA officials had no immediate comment, but one leading candidate to succeed Mayfield is his current deputy director, Ed Rappaport.

''The hurricane center will continue just fine without me,'' he said.Mayfield has been widely praised for his efforts in recent years and became the most visible forecaster in government service, appearing frequently in the media during hurricane crises, attending professional conferences and becoming prominent in other venues.

In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, which killed more than 1,700 people, Mayfield was summoned to testify at six congressional hearings. He and his staff won praise for their efforts to sound the alarm.

He often was asked for his autograph and frequently was asked by admirers to pose for pictures with them. Though naturally shy, he always agreed.

When one observer noted last May that he was being treated a bit like a rock star, Mayfield smiled ruefully.

''It's part of the job,'' he said. ``It helps me get the message out.''

And the message was: Be prepared and takes these hurricane threats seriously.

''I really want you to listen to me here,'' Mayfield told reporters when his appointment was made official on May 10, 2000. ``The greatest potential for loss of life is still along the coastline from storm surge. This is the dome of water that can be 50 to 100 miles wide and 15 feet deep when it makes landfall.

''People need to know their vulnerabilities,'' he said.

Born in Oklahoma, Mayfield holds a bachelor's degree in mathematics from the University of Oklahoma and a master's degree in meteorology from Florida State University.

He joined the hurricane center, now in west Miami-Dade County, in 1972 as an intern. He became a hurricane forecaster in 1988 and a senior forecaster -- one of only six -- two years later.

He was named deputy director in 1998 and became acting director in January 2000 when Jerry Jarrell retired.

Mayfield's wife, Linda, teaches at a school in Miami-Dade. They have three children.

Tropical Depression 4 Sliding South of the Cape Verde Islands

A tropical storm warning is still in effect for the Cape Verde Islands.

At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Four was at 12.8 north, 24.6 west, which is 140 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. The depression is moving west-northwest at about 16 mph. Maximum winds are estimated to be 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph, and the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 1007 millibars, or 29.74 inches of mercury.

This morning, T.D. 4 will bring squalls of heavy rain to the southern Cape Verde Islands. Several inches of rainfall will fall from this system, especially in the higher terrain of Fogo Island, where over 5 inches of rainfall can occur. Winds will continue to be gusty, mainly within the heavy squalls of rain.

Conditions in the eastern Atlantic are favorable for this depression to strengthen slowly. There is little wind shear and the clouds of dust coming off the Sahara have diminished over the last few days. The waters in this area are warm enough to support a tropical storm, but not by much; sea-surface temperatures are close to 80 degrees and this warmth cannot be found to substantial depth. The depression should reach tropical storm status sometime Tuesday, and the next name on the list for the Atlantic Basin is Debby.

Steering currents will take the depression to the west-northwest for the next few days, and the waters are not much warmer in its path during this time, so it is reasonable to expect only slow strengthening. However, when this feature reaches 40 west, which should occur Thursday night or Friday, the waters become warmer and the warmth is much deeper. So, it could strengthen considerably at that time. At this point, it appears that an upper-level trough of low pressure will begin to steer what should be a tropical storm by then on a more northwesterly path by this time, taking it into the middle of the Atlantic. However, should the storm end up farther south than forecast, then the storm can slip south of the trough and a more westerly path toward the Lesser Antilles is possible.

There is a tropical wave in the central Caribbean near 75 west, south of 19 north, moving west at about 15 knots, but there is very little shower and thunderstorm activity with this wave and it will not develop further anytime soon. Another tropical wave is close to 58 west, south of 19 north and is causing spotty thunderstorms as it tracks westward at 15 knots. However, there is no sign of organization along this wave and strong southwesterly winds causing shear will prevent this feature from developing further, as will a cloud of Saharan dust that is along and west of the wave. The same clouds of Saharan dust is choking the last feature to watch, a tropical wave that is present along 45 west, south of 19 north. It is causing just a few thunderstorms as it tracks to the west at about 15 knots.

A large batch of showers and thunderstorms are also affecting Central America. This is due to a tropical wave crossing the region. Since the wave is now primarily over land, tropical development is not expected in this area.

Atlantic hurricanes could rev up any time now

MIAMI, (Reuters) - There has been little action in the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season so far, but that may be about to change.

Max Mayfield, director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, said there are signs of increased activity near the west coast of Africa, source of the troublesome "Cape Verde" hurricanes that grow powerful on their long trip across the Atlantic.

"The bell's going to start ringing here before long," he said in an interview last week. "There's absolutely nothing that I know of that is unfavorable (to hurricane development) in the eastern Atlantic."

Last year's wildly busy Atlantic hurricane season changed many people's expectations, but it is perfectly normal for the first two or three months of a season to be fairly quiet.

The storm season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 and the worst part of it usually is between mid-August and late October, with the peak around Sept. 10. The average season produces about 10 tropical storms, of which six develop into hurricanes.

Last year saw nine storms develop by Aug. 7, on the way to a total of 28 in a record-shattering season that lasted until early January. Hurricane Katrina, the 11th and most destructive storm of the year, hit south Florida on Aug. 25 and New Orleans on Aug. 29, sparking massive flooding in the Louisiana city and killing more than 1,300 people.

Hurricane Andrew, which was the costliest storm in U.S. history until Katrina, was the first Atlantic storm of 1992 and hit Miami on Aug. 24 that year.

"We have a lot of years that don't really get started until the middle or end of August," Mayfield said.

So far this year, only three tropical storms have formed -- Alberto, Beryl and Chris. Strong wind shear -- the difference in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere -- has disrupted some of the tropical weather systems that eventually become cyclones.

Mayfield expressed puzzlement as to why the season hasn't been a little more active.

"We're actually not sure why some of these are not developing," he said.

Low East of Antilles May Develop Within Next 36 Hours

A tropical low pressure area about 1,075 miles east of the Windward Islands is moving to the west at about 6 degrees longitude per day. Satellite images showed a rotating mass of clouds with some thunderstorms growing within this mass. The center of this mass of clouds was roughly 12.0 north and 44.0 west. If thunderstorms continue to develop around this swirl of clouds, we could have a depression within the next 24-36 hours. A buoy located just northwest of the low continued to show falling pressure, suggesting this feature is trying to organize. Upper-level winds over this feature are not very strong. So, the shear over it is relatively light. Given the usual very warm water, this system is in a good position for development. In the coming days, as the low continues to track westward it would be in an area where the wind shear is less and thus the upper-level winds are more favorable for development. Current computer projections place this low pressure area in the Lesser Antilles Thursday night, then into the eastern Caribbean on Friday, but these models are showing little or no respect for this feature. All global models eventually show the system falling apart as it moves into the Lesser Antilles. An upper-level trough extending over the eastern Caribbean late in the week might create the shear that would prevent this system from developing further. So, speculating on this system beyond Friday is nearly impossible at this time.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic we are tracking tropical waves along 28 west, 17 north and 73 west, 23 north and all south of 25 north. Both of these waves are moving west at an average speed of 6-7 degrees longitude per day. The wave near 73 west is interacting with an upper-level low near the eastern Bahamas. However, there is presently too much wind shear in this area and thus no further development is expected with this wave. It will bring an increase in moisture over South Florida on Wednesday, leading to more showers and thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Chris Brings Rough Weather to the Virgin Islands

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the islands of Anguilla, St. Bartholomew, St. Martin and St. Maarten.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.

The tropical storm warning for St. Kitts, Nevis, Antigua, and Barbuda has been discontinued.

At 4:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Chris was still churning up the waters just to the northeast of the Leeward Islands. The storm was centered at 18.7 north, 62.5 west, 230 miles east of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The maximum winds were still 60 mph. The storm is moving west-northwest at around 9 mph and the minimum pressure was estimated to be 1002 millibars, or 29.59 inches of mercury. The tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles, mainly northeast from the storm's center. None of the observing sites in the Lesser Antilles are indicating any strong winds as of 5:00 a.m. EDT, though some are reporting weaker squalls associated with the storm. Being on the weaker side of the storm, most of the islands will probably only get tropical-storm-force winds in occasional gusts with the heaviest squalls. Rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches are possible over the Leeward Islands tonight and tomorrow and over the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tomorrow and tomorrow night. The mountains of Puerto Rico could help produce even more rainfall and perhaps dangerous mudslides if Chris comes close enough to that island tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Chris appears to be consolidating, becoming better organized, and gaining strength. The environment around the storm is favorable for further strengthening. The waters around the storm are warm and warm to substantial depth. The winds aloft are light, so there is little shear to be concerned with. The trend toward strengthening should continue in the near term, and Chris could easily be a hurricane by tonight or early Thursday morning

The track forecast and thus the long term intensity forecast is much more problematic. The consensus of the computer models is for Chris to take a track more westerly than northwesterly, and eventually rake the northern coasts of Puerto Rico and then Hispaniola. This would not be the best conditions for intensification, as a portion of the storms circulation would be interrupted by the high mountain terrain on those islands. However, the computer models have shown a bias forecasting storms too far left. Should the storm end up staying just far enough to the north of the islands, then it will remain more intense as it begins to affect Cuba and the Bahamas by the end of the week, and then possibly South Florida or the Keys late this weekend.

What is more certain at this point is that the Virgin Islands will experience squally conditions and gusty winds over the next 24 hours, and Puerto Rico will be brushed by strong winds by late Wednesday. The northern coast of Hispaniola will experience the strong winds by Friday. All of these areas will receive the heavy rains described above, and the rains could be even more extreme in Hispaniola should the storm take a more westward track. Therefore, storm preparations should be near completion in Puerto Rico and those residing in or those that have interests in Haiti or the Dominican Republic should rush storm preparations to completion at this point. Residents of Cuba and the southern Bahamas, as well as South Florida and the Keys need to monitor the storm's approach carefully. There is a good chance that Chris will be churning through the Gulf of Mexico next week.There are other features to track elsewhere in the tropics. There is a tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche along 92 west, south of 22 north. Although there is some thunderstorm activity along the wave, there is no sign of organization and development is unlikely before the wave is fully over Mexico. A wave along 70 west, south of 15 north is moving west at about 6 degrees longitude per day. This wave is mostly over land and is the southern part of the parent wave that was responsible for the formation of Tropical Storm Chris. There is another tropical wave along 36 west, south of 18 north, which is just to the west of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is moving to the west at about 15 knots. There is no sign of organization with this wave at this point, but there is spotty thunderstorm activity. Finally, a new wave is over the African coastline at about 18 west, south of 21 north, zipping rapidly west at about 20 knots. There is widespread thunderstorm activity with this wave, but no sign of organization with it just yet.

Tropical Storm Chris Approaches the Lesser Antilles

The area of disturbed weather that we have been tracking the past few days east of the Lesser Antilles has intensified into the third named storm of the season. As of 8am, Tropical Storm Chris was located near 16.8 north and 59.8 west or 135 miles east of Antigua. The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The central pressure is estimated at 1009 millibars or 29.80 inches.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Barthelemy, St. Martin, and St. Maarten, while a tropical storm watch is now in effect for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands.

Tropical Storm Chris will bring squally conditions to the Leeward Islands Tuesday and Wednesday. But, since it will be moving through the Leeward Islands, friction caused by the islands might prevent the depression from intensifying. Computer models continue to show a west northwest course which will keep the system over or near the Greater Antilles. This could further prevent intensification, and a large upper-level low north of the Bahamas may shear the storm later this week. If the system can avoid most of the islands, we project the system will be somewhere between the central Bahamas and southeast Cuba by Friday. This system could directly affect Florida early next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics we are tracking a wave along 29 west south of 18 north. This wave is moving west at about 6 degrees longitude per day. Dry air surrounds this well devleoped wave. As stated earlier some computer model output implies this system might develop in a few days.

A tropical wave along 87 west is moving west at about 7-8 degrees longitude per day. This wave has no organization, but the shear over it is rather low. Since there are no signs of a lower-level feature showing up yet, we do not expect this system to develop anytime soon.

Tropical Watch

A cluster of thunderstorms off the Carolina coast is associated with an old frontal zone and an upper-level trough. This feature will slowly shift offshore and it will take some time to develop.

A strung out tropical wave in the Caribbean is positioned from near 83 west and 15 north to near 73 west and 20 north. It is generally tracking west at 15 knots, although the eastern end of the wave is heading more to the northwest across Hispaniola. This wave is causing several showers and thunderstorms over this area with the heavier rainfall over Haiti into Jamaica and eastern Cuba. This system is becoming more and more elongated with time and will split with one piece moving northwest and the other moving due west. Development of either split looks unlikely, but the west moving system could gather some strength with low shear over the region.

We continue to track an impressive tropical wave centered near 55 west and 13 north. It is moving to the west-northwest at about 15 knots and has a center of circulation that can be seen on a visible satellite loop. It is causing plenty of thunderstorms near the center of circulation and looks like a tropical depression already. However, African Dust to the north of the wave and some east-northeast shear aloft may be keeping this feature from developing more robustly. Shear conditions will be less than favorable for the day, but could turn more favorable as the wave heads into the Caribbean. This wave has become less organized in the last 12 hours, but still contains moderate shower and thunderstorm activity. A robust tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is located along 23 west and south of 12 north and it is moving west at 15-20 knots. This system will head into a little shear on the south side.

Atlantic Quiet For Now

The area of disturbed weather that brought heavy rain to southeastern Texas and parts of Louisiana on Wednesday is now well inland. Moisture from this system will feed more showers and thunderstorms today through the southern Plains.

Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic we are tracking tropical waves along 35 west, south of 15 north, along 46 west, south of 22 north, along 67 west, south of 24 north and along 84 west, south of 20 north. All waves with the exception of the wave along 64 west are moving west at about 6-7 degrees longitude per day.

The wave along 67 west is moving west at 8-10 degrees longitude per day as it starts to interact with the Atlantic high to the north. This high is producing a stronger pressure gradient over the Greater Antilles. This wave will bring the eastern and northeastern Caribbean a few showers and thunderstorms, but it is moving too fast to bring any prolonged rainfall. A large mass of African Dust showing up on both the United States and European satellite images of the Atlantic is causing any showers and thunderstorms with this wave to diminish quickly. This wave will bring showers into the southern Bahamas and Hispaniola tomorrow and tomorrow night, then might enhance shower and thunderstorm development over the northern Bahamas and perhaps into southeastern Florida, Friday night into Saturday morning.

Disturbed weather in the western Gulf of Mexico might become an organized tropical system

An area of disturbed weather in the western Gulf of Mexico is being watched for possible development within the next 24 to 36 hours. We are carefully monitoring a couple of low pressure areas along or just off the coast of Mexico just east and northeast of Tampico crawling northward toward the south Texas coast. This area of low pressure could be evolving into a tropical depression. As long as the low pressure areas stay near the coast frictional forces will slow and perhaps inhibit development. An upper level low over northeast Mexico is creating southwest upper level winds over the system. This is creating some shear over the feature and this is another inhibiting factor for development. We believe the shear being caused by the upper level low will decrease over the next 24 hours. If the shear diminishes enough and the surface low pressure moves a bit more off the coast then this feature could wrap up into an organized tropical system very quickly. Since the system is disorganized all the stronger winds and persistent heavy rainfall is well to the east and northeast, well offshore. In a system like this the heavier rainfall will remain north and east of the weak low pressure center. If the thunderstorms and rain start to wrap around the surface low pressure area that will be a sign of organization. We did not see that happen during Monday afternoon. Reguardless of whether this becomes better organized the system will bring heavy rainfall to parts of coastal Texas during the next 36 hours. We expect the surface low pressure area to track northward which will bring that feature just east of Brownsville by Tuesday morning then due east of Corpus Christi by late Tuesday afternoon. The surface low pressure area will move into east Texas during Wednesday. So, if it's going to organize and devleop it will have to do so by Wednesday morning.

Calm in the Atlantic, For Now

There is only one area of concern in the Atlantic basin. Thunderstorms are clustered in the Bay of Campeche in the wake of a tropical wave that has moved into Mexico. Currently, upper-level westerly winds are strong, shearing the thunderstorms apart and preventing further development. However, should the thunderstorms persist for another 24 hours, the upper-level winds should eventually relax and become more favorable for development as a ridge builds over the region. Whether or not development occurs, some of this moisture will be pulled northward into southern Texas tonight and Tuesday, resulting in heavy thunderstorms in those areas.
Another tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean and is located along 79 west south of 20 north, moving west-northwest at 15 knots. There is very little thunderstorm activity along this wave.

Another couple of waves are progressing westward through the Atlantic. One wave is located along 67 west south of 18 north, moving west at 15 knots. There is little thunderstorm activity along this wave as well because of very dry air aloft over the region. The other wave has moved east of the Cape Verde Islands and is along 43 west south of 20 north. This wave has a well-defined low pressure area in association with it, but Saharan dust has become entrained with the system, choking off the thunderstorms that were along the wave earlier. So, development cannot occur along this wave anytime soon.

Tropical Storm Beryl hits Massachusetts

Tropical Storm Beryl quietly made landfall on Nantucket early Friday, bringing a steady, driving rain to coastal Massachusetts. Hours later, it moved out to sea, leaving little but a soaking in its path.

The storm's center hit around 3 a.m., said Jack Beven, hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The wind and rain started to pick up just after midnight, said Rocky Fox, owner of the Chicken Box bar there. But he wasn't scared: "It's the kind that puddles quick," he said. "To us it's just a big old Nor'easter."

Officials said the region fared well. The Coast Guard said they hadn't heard of problems, and no power outages were reported.

"It looks like a gray, rainy day," said Nantucket Fire Department Capt. Steve Murphy as he looked out the window.

A tropical storm warning issued from the coast of Massachusetts was discontinued Friday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Areas affected included Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.

At 5 a.m. EDT, the storm had maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph, and was about 35 miles northeast of Nantucket. It was expected to weaken over the next 24 hours and lose tropical characteristics by Saturday morning.

It was moving at about 21 mph and was expected to increase in speed Friday, forecasters said. The center of Beryl was expected to be near or over Nova Scotia late Friday or early Saturday.

The Coast Guard was monitoring about 50 commercial fishing vessels still on the New England waters near the storm's path late Thursday night, but had no reports of vessels in trouble, said Chief Petty Officer Scott Carr.A tropical storm watch had been issued for eastern Long Island and parts of Connecticut, but was discontinued early Friday as the storm moved northeast.

A tropical storm watch had been issued for eastern Long Island and parts of Connecticut, but was discontinued early Friday as the storm moved northeast.

Workers at Nantucket Moorings on Thursday were making sure their customers' boats were tied down securely, but they weren't panicking.

"That's all we can do for now — make sure lines are secure and people know that the storm is approaching," said Leigh Van Hoven, office manager of the company, which rents and sells moorings.

A record 28 named storms and 15 hurricanes, including destructive Katrina, occurred during last year's June-November Atlantic hurricane season.
The first named storm of the 2006 season, Tropical Storm Alberto, swept over Florida in mid-June, then plowed northward along the coast past the Outer Banks. It was blamed for one drowning.

Beryl Moving Northward Just off Delmarvia Coastline Thursday

A tropical storm warning has been issued for southeastern Massachusetts from Plymouth, southward and westward to Woods Hole. This includes Cape Cod, Nantucket Island and Martha's Vineyard. Additional watches and warnings may be necessary for parts of Long Island and the New England coastline.

Tropical Storm Beryl is about 295 miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts, packing winds of 60 mph with gusts to 70 mph. As of 5:00 a.m. EDT Thursday, the center of Beryl was located near 37.8 north and 73.2 west. The storm is moving generally to the north at 9 mph. The surface pressure remains at 1002 millibars, or 29.59 inches. Beryl will continue on a northerly track and will increase in forward speed over the next 24 hours. The shear should increase Thursday morning as an upper-level trough approaches from the west, and will help to prevent any significant intensification Thursday. Also, Beryl will be moving over some cooler waters as it continues to head to the north. It should remain a very strong tropical storm through Thursday afternoon as it moves faster and on more of a northeasterly course. The increased shear will then cause the storm to weaken late Thursday and Thursday night. Our forecast will bring the center of Beryl over or near Nantucket early Friday morning. The system should track to the northeast of southeastern New England by later Friday morning and will start to transition to a non-tropical system as it approaches southern Nova Scotia Friday afternoon. Strong winds should continue to stay offshore until the storm moves close to eastern Long Island and over extreme southeastern New England later Thursday night and early Friday morning. We are expecting 15-30 mph winds with gusts to 40 mph along far eastern Long Island and extreme coastal New England. Places like Block Island and Nantucket Island could have higher wind gusts.

The greatest threat with Beryl will be rough surf and rip currents. All the way from Cape Cod southward to Cape Lookout, there will be an increased threat of rip currents. Swimmers and surfers are urged to use extreme caution or even avoid entering the surf through Friday, as rip currents can drown even the best swimmers.

Tropical Storm Beryl Moving North Offshore North Carolina

Tropical Storm Beryl is located 110 miles east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Beryl continues on a northerly track at 7 mph and maintain tropical storm strength over the next 24 to 48 hours. The storm will track northward, grazing the Outer Banks of North Carolina today. Based on this track, eastern North Carolina and perhaps southeastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula would see some rain squalls with gusty winds tonight, and early Thursday before the storm accelerates northeastward with similar conditions around Cape Cod on Friday.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the North Carolina coast from north of Cape Lookout to south of Currituck Beach Light.

Residents of the Outer Banks of North Carolina should be completed with storm preparations at this point, as this area will at least be brushed by Beryl. Those along the coast all the way to Cape Cod should keep a close watch on Beryl's progress, as any deviation west of the forecast track would result in areas around the coast to be directly affected. Outside of the main danger area, Beryl will cause rip currents, rough surf and some beach erosion, as well as possible coastal flooding along the Carolina and mid-Atlantic coasts.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there are a few tropical waves to follow. One tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula and will eventually move over the Bay of Campeche Wednesday. The close proximity to land should prevent further organization or strengthening

Another tropical wave is along 68 west, south of 25 north. It is causing thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean.

A third tropical wave in the open Atlantic, near 35 west, south of 16 north. There could be development along this wave over time as well, since the waters are progressively warmer in the path of the wave and there is no significant shear in the region.

Fast Flood Facts from FloodSmart.gov

Did you know?
• Floods and flash floods happen in all 50 states.
• Everyone lives in a flood zone. (For more information, visit the Frequently Asked Questions about Flood Zones)
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• If you live in a Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) or high risk area, your mortgage lender requires you to have flood insurance. (To find out if you are in an SFHA, visit What's Your Flood Risk?)
• Just an inch of water can cause costly damage to your property.
• Flash floods often bring walls of water 10 to 20 feet high.
• A car can easily be carried away by just two feet of floodwater.
• Hurricanes, winter storms and snow melt are common (but often overlooked) causes of flooding.
• New land development can increase flood risk, especially if the construction changes natural runoff paths.
• Federal disaster assistance is usually a loan that must be paid back with interest. For a $50,000 loan at 4% interest, your monthly payment would be around $240 a month ($2,880 a year) for 30 years. Compare that to a $100,000 flood insurance premium, which is about $500 a year ($33 a month).
• If you live in a low to moderate risk area and are eligible for the Preferred Risk Policy, your flood insurance premium may be as low as $112 a year, including coverage for your property's contents.
• You are eligible to purchase flood insurance as long as your community participates in the National Flood Insurance Program. Check the Community Status Book to see if your community is already an NFIP partner.
It takes 30 days after purchase for a policy to take effect, so it's important to buy insurance before the floodwaters start to rise.
• All claims and expenses of the NFIP program are funded by insurance premiums, not tax dollars.

Making Waves

The next tropical wave to be concerned with is roughly along 70 west, south of 20 north. It is moving west-northwestward at about 15 knots. There are no signs of organization with this wave at the moment and shear caused by westerly winds aloft will prevent any development along this wave in the near future. The wave is causing showers and thunderstorms in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Thursday night that will reach Hispaniola Friday. This wave will eventually reach South Florida by Sunday.

A weak wave is around 54 west, south of 12 north. There are a few scattered showers from this system, but no development is expected.

Another tropical wave is out over the open Atlantic to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands along 30 west, south of 15 north. There appears to be an area of low pressure along this wave centered near 27 west and 13 north, as evidenced by a swirl of clouds on satellite pictures of the region. While in minimal shear at this point it will continue to head toward a region where more shear is expected. Development is not expected.

Another wave is moving through western Africa and should form another Atlantic tropical wave later Friday.

A Tropical Wave East of the Lesser Antilles Might Have Favorable Conditions for Development in a Few Days

We are tracking tropical waves along 74 west and along 53 west. The wave along 74 west extends to about 21 north and is moving to the west at 10-15 knots or about 6 degrees longitude per day. This wave is causing an increase in clouds, showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas and eastern Cuba, as well as parts of Columbia. That wave will help bring a moisture surge into South and central Florida Wednesday and Thursday. A large area of dry air follows this wave over the Leeward Islands.

The wave along 53 west has a curved cloud structure that extends up to about 15 north with a 1012 mb low associated with it. This wave is moving westward at about 6 degrees longitude per day. Microwave satellite images show clusters of thunderstorms and a slight rotary motion in the thunderstorm pattern. This is often the beginning sign of a possible low-level or upper-level feature forming. For the first time this tropical season, the shear has relaxed over the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean. Current shear in the path of this wave is generally less than 10 knots and that is not enough to kill the wave. Another problem with this season thus far has been higher-than-normal surface pressures over the Caribbean. Current surface data indicates that surface pressures are lower today compared to last week and are near normal for the most part. If surface pressure continues to lower and the shear continues to relax over the eastern Caribbean and near the Lesser Antilles, this wave could try to organize in a few days. This wave will move into the Lesser Antilles Wednesday night and Thursday.

Model forecast tracks / A normal July

Model forecast tracks for the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

The curve of historical normal hurricane activity of the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Development Unlikely

A tropical wave is causing a few showers and thunderstorms from Puerto Rico to just north of the Dominican Republic and northward still into the Bahamas. While there is considerable convection with this wave, there will be little organized storminess at this point. These thunderstorms have been ongoing for the past 24 hours, but tropical development is unlikely over the coming days due to wind shear and stronger-than-average surface pressures in their path. This disturbance should reach Florida by Wednesday, causing an increase in thunderstorm activity.

Another tropical wave is located near 44/45 west, south of 15 north and is moving to the west at 15 knots. Thunderstorms have become better organized with the wave, and a small surface low with a minimum pressure of 1012 mb has developed. This wave shows small promise for future development, but it will also be entering an area of some wind shear near the Leeward Islands.

Disturbed weather in the northwest Caribbean is being watched

An upper level system, extending from near Florida toward the southwest across the southeast Gulf of Mexico and into the northwest Caribbean Sea, continues to generate showers and thunderstorms from the U.S. southeast coast southwest into the northwest Caribbean. A surface low will devleop along a weak front moving into the southeast U.S. and become better developed near the Carolina coast later today and Saturday then lift northeast. We see no tropical development with this low. However, a tropical wave along 85 west near 22 north angles back south southwest into the northwest Caribbean. This tropical wave is interacting with the upper level system and this is leading to enhanced thunderstorms from western Cuba southward into eastern Nicarague and Honduras. Surface pressures in this area remain too high for possible development within the next couple of days and the wave is moving westward at about 7 to 8 degrees longitude per day. So, this feature will be over the Yucatan tomorrow, slow down and move into the southwest Gulf Saturday night and Sunday. There is a slight chance this system could organize in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin a tropical waves along 60 west and along 45 west are moving west at about 15kts. Both waves are surrounded by African dust at this time. This dust will continue to suppress thunderstorm development in and around these tropical waves. A new wave is emerging off the African coast just east of 20 west. t too is surrounded by dust and the thunderstorms around it will probably diminish witin the next 24 hours as it heads west.

A large area of African dust covers the eastern Caribbean eastward across the tropical Atlantic. As we have been stating all week this large area of dust is creating a strong inversion which will continue to suppress convective development. Given no large scale shower and thunderstorm development it will be very difficult for any tropical development over the eastern Caribbean into the western tropical Atlantic for the next few days.

Tropical Atlantic remains quiet

The Atlantic Basin continues to look fairly quiet. We continue to monitor an area of clouds, showers and thunderstorms over the northern Bahamas into southeast Florida. This area of disturbed weather is associated with a weak upper level low that is centered near Miami Florida. This upper level feature will move west northwest over the next 24 hours then become oval shaped and oriented northeast to southwest on Friday as an upper level system moves into the Southeast U.S.. A weak cool front supported by this upper level system dropping into the Southeast U.S. will reach northern Florida tomorrow night. This very complex weather pattern will cause a surface low to form over southeast Georgia tomorrow night. That low pressure are will move northeast close to the South and North Carolina coast during Friday and Friday night. This will not be a tropical feature at this point. However, it could become a non tropical storm system as it moves northeast Friday night and Saturday.

Elsewhere in the tropics we are monitoring tropical waves along 76 west south of 22 north, along 52 west south of 11 north and along 35 west south of 13 north. These waves are moving to the west at about 15-20 knots or about 7 degrees longitude per day. The wave along 76 west is enhancing thunderstorm development over eastern Cuba and over the southern Caribbean. But there is little shower or thunderstorm development over the middle Caribbean. We expect this wave to be along 82 west late tomorrow and near 90 west by Friday evening. This will help produce an increase in thunderstorms over the Yucatan peninsula during Friday. This wave might be something to watch over the weekend as it moves into the Bay of Campeche or the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

Florida coral battered by hurricanes and disease

DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK, Florida (Reuters) - In the azure waters of Florida's remote Dry Tortugas National Park, corals have been toppled by hurricanes and blighted by disease and a phenomenon known as bleaching.

Eight hurricanes in two years and a plague of disease that swept the Caribbean recently have damaged the colorful, thick carpets of open-water coral reefs in the 100-square-mile (260-sq-km) park off Florida's southwest coast.

With another hurricane season under way and diseases such as white plague getting an early start this year, scientists surveying the reef expressed heightened concern for the fragile corals, which are important nurseries and habitats for marine life and harbingers of the health of the seas.

"There are some areas out here that are like a parking lot, absolutely denuded," said Dr. Jerry Ault, associate professor of marine biology and fisheries at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science.

Ault supervised a team of nearly 40 divers aboard the 100-foot (30-meter) research vessel Spree recently as they conducted a three-week, $300,000 biennial census, surveying coral, fish and lobster.

The Dry Tortugas are a cluster of seven tiny islands and acres (hectares) of coral seabed located 70 miles southwest of Key West, a popular tourist island at the southern tip of the Florida peninsula.

"Since 2004, we have had eight storms that have tracked within 100 miles of the Tortugas," said Ault. "In 2005, this was ground zero for major storms.

"Are we afraid of another hurricane season? Three (bad) hurricane seasons can't be a good thing."

"Coral reefs are in a state of decline around the world," said Billy Causey, acting regional manager for national marine sanctuaries in the southeast United States. "At least we have protections in place. There's probably not a piece of coral reef real estate that is any more protected."

The Tropical Atlantic remains relatively quiet

The upper level low just east of Florida and a tropical wave along 70 west are our main concerns for any possible tropical development. At this point we don either system within the next couple of days due to strong shear and higher than normal surface pressure. The wave along 70 west is handled differently by various computer models. There is some attempt by one model to show some organization of this wave within the next 3 days. However, we don't see that on other model output. A large area of African dust that we have been stating over the past few days continues to advance westward and is now entering the eastern Caribbean. This African dust represents drier than normal air at about 10,000 feet. This tends to put a lid on thunderstorm development. This drier air is feeding into the back of the wave along 70 west and this will also hinder development.

We are tracking other tropical waves. They are along: 30 west south of 15 north, along 45 west south of 15 north and along 85 west south of 13 north. These tropical waves are moving west at 15-20 knots or about 7 degrees longitude per day. We see no support for any development by any of these waves.

Looking back a year ago for July 4-5 we had two tropical depressions one became Cindy and the other was Dennis. We have had only one tropical cyclone so far this season and this is much closer to a near normal season. We believe the reason we have not seen any quick development like last year is due to several factors. As stated above we are seeing surface pressures a bit higher than normal over the Caribbean compared to lower than normal last year. We also continue to see strong shearing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico down into the Caribbean due to frequent upper level troughs forming over the eastern U.S.. through the Caribbean. Current trends in longer range computer output suggests these conditions should persist through the next 5-7 days and perhaps longer.

Tropical Wave Impacting the Bay of Campeche

A tropical wave along 98 west and south of 20 north is flaring up showers and thunderstorms across the Bay of Campeche. This feature is looking better organized, according to the latest satellite loop, with a large, somewhat concentrated, area of deep convection. However, westerly winds aloft are too strong to allow for fast development or falling pressure. The wave is tracking to the west-northwest at 10-15 knots and will bring beneficial showers and thunderstorms to South Texas over the weekend. If this feature persists for a couple of days and becomes a depression, it could cause flooding rains over eastern Mexico.

A potent tropical wave continues to affect the eastern Caribbean. It is located along 72 west and south of 20 north and is moving west-northwest at 15-20 knots. The wave is causing numerous showers and thunderstorms from Puerto Rico to the Leeward Islands, with a large area of deep convection north of Hispaniola. This convection is being aided by a broad upper-level trough, which is causing southwesterly shear over the system, actually aiding in thunderstorm development much like upper-level shear over the Plains during spring. However, this shear will not allow for tropical development, even though the upper-level trough will move back to the west over the next couple of days, as will the shear, but the wave should continue to track under the shear, slowing the development. Tropical moisture from this wave should increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms across central and South Florida later in the weekend.

Farther east, another tropical wave is located along 54 west and south of 10 north. It is moving west at 15-20 knots and shows little sign of organization. Our last tropical wave is along 38 west and south of 10 north and shows little sign of development.

Tropical Wave Lashes Lesser Antilles and the Virgin Islands

A robust tropical wave continues to produce squally conditions across the Lesser Antilles Thursday. The wave, along 63 west and south of 20 north, is tracking to the west at 15 knots and will move into the western Caribbean later this weekend. It will bring gusty winds and numerous showers and thunderstorms to Puerto Rico today and then Hispaniola on Friday. An upper-level trough is causing a southwest shear across the eastern Caribbean and over the top of this wave so any development will be slow for the time being. The upper-level trough will back to the west over the next couple of days and so will the shear, but if the wave continues to track under the shear, then development will continue to be slow. Tropical moisture from this wave should increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms across central and South Florida later in the weekend.

Another tropical wave along 96 west and south of 20 north is moving west at 10-15 knots, but convection associated with it has greatly diminished. Moisture from this wave will bring much-needed showers and thunderstorms to South Texas over the weekend.

Farther east, another tropical wave is located along 47 west and south of 10 north. It is moving west at 10-15 knots and shows little sign of organization.

Tropical Downpours Continue in East

Low pressure continues to surge northward into the Northeast Wednesday morning, producing tropical downpours from eastern New York into New England. Gales are possible just to the east of the center as well as it moves from western Connecticut toward northern New England. But, the main story will be the flooding rain that will continue over areas that have already been hard-hit over the last couple of months.

Elsewhere in the tropics, a tropical wave is moving through Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula, and is spreading thunderstorms over much of Central America, and the northern end of the wave will cross the Bay of Campeche. There are no signs of organization with the wave at this point, but it is possible that some of this wave's moisture will be pulled into South Texas by Friday, which would result in welcome rainfall in this drought-stricken region. The weather is generally quiet over the rest of the Caribbean at this time. The only other tropical wave to watch is approaching the Lesser Antilles and will cause thunderstorms there Wednesday. This feature also shows no signs of imminent organization.

An upper-level disturbance about halfway between Puerto Rico and Bermuda will continue to move toward the northwest over the next 24 hours. This may begin to affect Bermuda with showers late Wednesday, then pass closer to the island Wednesday night or Thursday.

New threat area east of the Windward Islands

A new area worth watching has cropped up near 7N 47W, about 1050 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands. There is some heavy thunderstorm activity here and a 1012 mb low pressure area has developed. This low is moving west towards an area of higher wind shear, and is not expected to develop. Wind shear over most of the Atlantic is expected to remain seasonably high over the next week, making it difficult for tropical storm formation.

Preliminary model tracks for the low east of the Windward Islands.

Intense storms blamed on heat

Storms blamed on global warming

Global warming, not natural fluctuations in ocean temperature, was the main cause of the ocean heat that energized last year's killer hurricanes, scientists at a federally funded climate laboratory said Thursday.

As a result, continued increases in the Earth's temperature likely will lead to more "enhanced hurricane activity" in future years, said climate analysts Kevin Trenberth and Dennis Shea of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.

Hurricanes draw their energy from the ocean, and scientists on both sides of the debate agree that rising Atlantic Ocean temperatures have driven the past decade's increasingly violent hurricanes.

Last year, for example, the temperature in the tropical Atlantic, where many hurricanes originate, was about 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit above the average for the first 70 years of the 20th century.

The year produced the most named storms on record (28), forcing the National Hurricane Center to go into the Greek alphabet for names. It also brought the most intense Atlantic storm on record (Wilma), the most intense storm to hit the Gulf of Mexico (Rita) and the most destructive storm on record (Katrina).

Some experts, including National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield and Colorado State University forecaster William Gray, have discounted the effects of global warming.

They contend that higher ocean temperatures are a result of a long-term cycle known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.

A rise and fall in the ocean's temperature has been documented as far back as the late 1800s.

But in a study described in the Geophysical Research Letters, Trenberth and Shea said the current rise is only partly caused by the oscillation.

They deducted a global temperature increase that scientists have monitored since the 1970s from changes observed in the Atlantic during the same period, and concluded that very little of the increased Atlantic temperature was caused by the ocean temperature cycle.

They attributed 0.8 degrees of the extra temperature to global warming and about 0.2 degrees to the oscillation. The remainder is due to the after-effects of the 2004-05 El Niño warm-water current in the Pacific Ocean and year-to-year variability, they said.

"I don't see how the hell they can say that," said Gray, 76, professor emeritus of atmospheric sciences at Colorado State. "We're just in one of these warming trends due to the ocean circulation and there's nothing we can do about it."

But Georgia Tech scientist Peter Webster, who this year reported that rising ocean temperatures worldwide are directly linked to a 35-year trend of increased hurricane strength, said the calculations by Trenberth and Shea were "fundamentally sound."

"The Atlantic oscillation is there, but it's being out-ridden by global warming," he said.

In a separate report released Thursday, a committee of the National Academy of Sciences said that "proxy" climate records, such as the width of tree rings and the chemical makeup of ice from deep beneath the Greenland snowpack, indicate with "high confidence" that the Earth is warmer now than it has been in the past 400 years.

The academy's study was made at the request of Congress. Industry representatives and global-warming skeptics attacked a earlier proxy temperature study that concluded that the Earth's temperature varied little for 1,000 years, then in the past 25 years began to rise sharply, at an angle reminiscent of a hockey stick.

The study has played a key role in actions by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The academy panel's study said the proxy evidence provides "less confidence" in climate conditions between 900 and 1600 A.D.

It said "very little confidence" could be placed in average global temperature calculations before 900.

Area Near Bahamas Bears Watching

An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper level trough has been the main focus of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin the past few days. Some shear continues to limit the organization of this system overall. In addition there appear to be two centers of circulation competing with each other. Another limiting factor is that the surface pressure remains relatively high across the region and will have to lower considerably before the system would truly become a serious threat. Computer models suggest the the shear will relax some over the next couple of days, so the system is expected to become a bit better organized. Steering winds should eventually take this system to the west or northwest and at the least rainfall in the path of this system should be enhanced. As this tropical moisture feeds into the eastern United States, it will interact with a stalled frontal boundary, resulting in heavy rainfall. It is still too early to tell where the heavy rain is most likely, but keep chacking back here for the latest details on this system.

There is a tropical waves at 57 West moving west at 15-20 kts. and another waves at 82 West moving west at 10-15 kts. There is no organization with either of these waves and so the remainder of the Atlantic Basin outside of the area near the Bahamas should be fairly tranquil the next few days.

The Storm near the Bahamas Could Turn Tropical

A system to the north of the Bahamas may bear watching over the next couple of days. A storm in the area will attempt to become more tropical in nature during the next couple of days. Shear continues to affect the storm's strengthening, but this should relax later Friday. At this point it will be the best chance for the storm to change to more tropical features. Either way this system is expected to move toward the coast and inland later this weekend into early next week. Tropical moisture is feeding into the overall flow of the weather pattern. This means that heavy rain is likely across much of the eastern U.S. into next week.

There is a tropical waves at 56 West moving west at 15-20 kts. and another waves at 81 West moving west at 10-15 kts.

Alberto downgraded as it steams across Southeast

After splashing ashore in Florida without its once-feared punch, the remnants of the first named storm of the season churned through the Southeast early Wednesday, bringing much-needed rain and offering a tune-up for officials readying for the long hurricane season.

By early Wednesday morning, Alberto had weakened from a tropical storm to a tropical depression over South Carolina and all tropical storm warnings were discontinued, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said. The storm was expected to lose all tropical characteristics later in the day, though it was possible the storm could strengthen again.

After last year's 28 named storms and record 15 hurricanes, Tropical Storm Alberto caused a brief scare and prompted a call for more than 20,000 people to evacuate Florida's Gulf Coast. But no serious injuries or deaths were reported.

Alberto leaves thousands powerless on Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Alberto pelted Florida's Gulf Coast with rain before it made landfall Tuesday, but early reports indicated its winds, storm surge and other effects were not as serious as initially feared.

The storm's center came ashore around 12:30 p.m. near Adams Beach, about 50 miles southeast of Tallahassee, the National Hurricane Center said. Alberto's top sustained winds were 40 mph, down from 65 mph earlier in the day. The minimum wind speed for a hurricane is 74 mph.

About 21,000 homes and businesses were without power statewide and some streets flooded in coastal towns. Water levels approached several houses and businesses near Crystal River to the south. Residents gathered in calf-deep water on streets and parking lots and dropped sandbags in preparation for the afternoon high tide.

Little damage reported from Alberto in Fla

CEDAR KEY, Fla. - The first tropical storm of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season pelted Florida's gulf coast with rain Tuesday, but forecasters said Alberto wouldn't reach hurricane strength as earlier feared.

The National Hurricane Center downgraded its hurricane warning on parts of Florida's Gulf Coast to a tropical storm warning midmorning.

Alberto's top sustained winds had dropped to 50 mph, well below the 74 mph threshold for a hurricane.

Alberto weakens as it nears landfall

Thousands ordered to flee ahead of tropical storm

A slightly weakened Tropical Storm Alberto approached the northern Gulf Coast of Florida early Tuesday, with maximum sustained winds at 65 mph, the National Hurricane Center reported.

A hurricane warning was in place from the Tampa Bay area to near Tallahassee.

Forecasters urged people to quickly make "preparations to protect life and property" as the eye of Alberto neared shore.

The NHC currently predicts the storm could make landfall about midday.

Florida Gov. Jeb Bush issued a mandatory evacuation order for low-lying counties Dixie, Levy, Taylor, Citrus, Franklin and Wakulla, which are in the storm's path.

At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Alberto was about 60 miles southeast of Apalachicola and about 65 miles west of Cedar Key, moving northeast at about 9 mph. Forecasters said it is likely to continue on that path through midday.

Forecasters reported coastal storm surging up to 8 to 10 feet above normal tide levels over a large portion of the warning area -- conditions that could trigger floods and mudslides -- are expected.

Rainfall could reach 10 inches Tuesday across portions of central and northern Florida and southeastern Georgia.

The hurricane warning stretches from the Ochlockonee River south to Longboat Key.

Bush advised Florida residents in the path of the storm to ensure they have enough supplies like food, medicine, water and a full tank of gas to last at least 72 hours.

Florida state officials have reported no gas shortages and said the ports are open for now, although the port of Tampa is evaluating whether to stay open.

Hurricane warning issued for Alberto

Forecasters issued a hurricane warning for parts of Florida's Gulf Coast on Monday as the first named storm of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season quickly gained strength in the Gulf of Mexico.

The warning from Longboat Key near Sarasota to the Ochlockonee River south of Tallahassee means Tropical Storm Alberto was expected to produce hurricane conditions within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Longboat Key to Englewood.

At 11 a.m., Alberto's winds had increased to 70 mph, up from 50 mph just three hours earlier. The storm was centered about 190 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola and was moving north-northeast at about 7 mph, National Hurricane Center forecasters said.

Storm warning issued for Fla.'s Gulf Coast

TAMPA, Fla. - The first named storm of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season slightly strengthened early Monday in the Gulf of Mexico, prompting forecasters to issue tropical storm warnings for Florida's west coast.

Tropical Storm Alberto had maximum sustained wind near 50 mph but was not likely to grow into a hurricane, the National Hurricane Center said. There were no major reports of damage.

At 5 a.m. EDT, Alberto was centered about 275 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola. It was moving north-northeast at about 8 mph and could make landfall Tuesday night, forecasters said.

"Right before landfall they expect a little stronger: 55 gusts to 65. It won't be quite hurricane strength," said Ron Goodman, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center. "Things can change, but right now it's not expected to be a hurricane."

Forecasters said that up to 30 inches of rain could fall over some parts of Cuba, creating a threat of flash floods and mudslides, and that 5 to 10 inches could fall over the Florida peninsula through Tuesday. Over the Florida Keys, between 3 to 5 inches of rainfall are possible.

A tropical storm warning was issued for most of Florida's west coast, from Englewood to Indian Pass, meaning tropical storm conditions were expected there within the next 24 hours. A tropical storm watch remains in effect from south of Englewood to Bonita Beach.

The tropical depression that produced Alberto formed Saturday, nine days after the official start of the hurricane season, in the northwest Caribbean, which can produce typically weak storms that follow a similar track this time of year, forecasters said.

Last year's hurricane season was the most destructive on record. Hurricane Katrina devastated Louisiana and Mississippi and was blamed for more than 1,570 deaths among Louisiana residents alone.

This year, however, meteorologists have said the Atlantic is not as warm as it was at this time in 2005, meaning potential storms would have less of the energy needed to develop into hurricanes.

Last year's first named storm was Tropical Storm Arlene, which formed June 9 and made landfall just west of Pensacola in the Florida Panhandle.

Tropical Depression One Over The Eastern Gulf of Mexico

...Tropical depression over the eastern Gulf of Mexico...forecast to become a tropical storm...

interests in the eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph andthis track should continue through Sunday.Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher gusts mainly in squalls to the north and east of the center. The depression could become a tropical storm on Sunday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches. At this time...the main hazard associated with the depression is heavy rainfall. The depression is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over the western half of Cuba...with isolated totals of 30 inches over the higher terrain. This could cause devastating flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall
totals of 3 to 5 inches are possible over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. There is also the potential for heavy rainfall of 4 to 8 inches possible over the Florida Keys and western Florida through Monday.

First Storm Of The Season?

The 00Z Canadian develops a potent TC near Belize then shoots it north into the Florida Panhandle.

Also the 00Z Nogaps develops a closed low in the same area then moves it into the Western GOM, then dissipates it.

But other models show no such thing, and the National Hurricane Center isn't saying anything so far, telling us only: "TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY."

We will just have to wait and see.

When Is Hurricane Season In The Atlantic?

Hurricane Season in the Atlantic runs from June 1 to November 30. As you can see from the graph above, the activity ramps up in August and peaks once in early September then again in October. Persons travelling to areas near the Atlantic basin should exercise caution during Hurricane Season.

Fewer Than One in Five U.S. Gulf and East Coast Residents Feel 'Very Prepared' for Hurricane or Flood According to Survey

Following the most devastating hurricane season in U.S. history, only 18 percent of adult residents living in the U.S. Gulf and Southern East Coast states, from Texas to Delaware(1), say their family is "very prepared" for a natural disaster, such as a hurricane or flood, according to a recent survey commissioned by The Home Depot and the American Red Cross as part of a three-year partnership to increase preparedness. The survey was conducted by Harris Interactive.

Additional Key Survey Findings
- Only 37 percent of Gulf and Southern East Coast residents are "concerned" or "very concerned" that they and their families will be in danger due to a hurricane or flood during hurricane season (June 1-November 30).

- Nearly one in three (31 percent) say they do not know how to protect their family and home from a hurricane.

- More than half (55 percent) do not have a disaster supplies kit, and more than two in five (47 percent) do not have an evacuation plan in case of a natural disaster, such as a hurricane or flood.

- Only two in five (40 percent) are more concerned about the possibility of being impacted by a hurricane or flood now than they were three years ago.

"During the past two years, the hurricanes that have hit the Gulf region of the United States have had a devastating impact on millions of people and hundreds of local communities," said Paul Raines, president, Southern Division, The Home Depot. "These recent survey findings show us that continued education about hurricane preparedness is necessary. As part of our partnership with the Red Cross, we have developed a series of hurricane- readiness clinics in order to help our customers and neighbors better protect their families and homes."

Every Saturday from May 27-Sept. 30, 2006, The Home Depot will offer the in-store hurricane readiness clinics covering the following: How to Prepare for a Hurricane, ABCs of Hurricane Preparation, How to Protect Your Property From Wind, and How to Build Our Family Disaster Supplies Kit. The clinics will be held from 11 a.m.-12 p.m. (local time) and offered on a four-week rotation schedule.

Get set for another hurricane season

By Robert P. King
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

How many times do you need to hear this?

Get set for yet another harried hurricane season, Colorado State University researchers said Wednesday, because the one that begins today should be a doozy.

Prospects appear especially grim for Florida and the East Coast of the U.S., which stand a 69 percent chance of experiencing a major hurricane of at least Category 3 strength -- more than double the odds of an average year, they said.

That's one category stronger than Hurricane Wilma was Oct. 24, when it tossed railroad cars off their tracks in the Glades and left nearly 6 million people across South Florida without power.

The Gulf Coast, which took the brunt of Katrina, Rita and Dennis in 2005, has a 38 percent chance of another major hurricane strike this year, the scientists said. That's slightly higher than average.

Nobody can say for sure where the storms will strike, researchers Philip Klotzbach and William Gray cautioned. But key symptoms of the global climate point to a season in which hurricanes streaming west across the Atlantic will have a greater chance of striking land rather than curving harmlessly out to sea, they said.

Meanwhile, hurricane-friendly winds and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, though not as scalding as last year, point to a bumper crop of hurricanes forming.

Wednesday's forecast comes a week after federal meteorologists issued a similar prediction for a busy season, calling on coastal residents to prepare for the worst. Public and private researchers on both sides of the Atlantic have issued similar prognostications in recent months.

In fact, the Colorado State scientists, who adjust their predictions every few months, haven't wavered since December in their forecasts for the number of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes.

They're calling for a total of 17 named storms, which would carry us all the way to Rafael.

That sounds a lot calmer than last year's record 28-storm season, which ventured into the Greek alphabet and ended with Zeta. Then again, 17 storms would be almost 80 percent more than the yearly average seen during the latter half of the 20th century.

Klotzbach and Gray's forecast includes nine hurricanes, compared with an average of 5.9, and five major hurricanes, compared with an average of 2.3.

"The conditions that we thought were likely to be present during the hurricane season still look like what we saw in the December hurricane forecast," Klotzbach said. "The Atlantic conditions haven't changed a whole lot."

Gray has been a pioneer in the tricky task of forecasting storm totals months in advance -- some years more successfully than others. (This time last year, he was predicting a mere 15 storms.)

Two years ago, he and Klotzbach started predicting the odds of storms hitting particular stretches of the coast, right down to the county.

Wednesday's forecast adds a new factor: the global atmospheric "steering currents" that can move storms toward or away from land.

Some of those relate to the Bermuda High, a zone of high pressure that squats on or near the southeastern U.S. coast in the summer and fall. Depending on where it sits, the high and its clockwise-swirling winds can steer hurricanes either onto land or into the North Atlantic.

In 2004, the high was so far west that it gave approaching storms no place to go but into Florida, contributing to our six-week spree of Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne. Atmospheric patterns over the Northeast and Canada show the high may end up in a similar position this year, Klotzbach said.

Some meteorologists have tried to tie the Bermuda High's behavior to phenomena such as May rainfall in South Florida.

Others, such as National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield, have avoided making such prophecies.

"People are asking if the steering currents will stay the same, and the bottom line is nobody can tell you that," Mayfield said in April at the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando.

Klotzbach acknowledged that nothing about such forecasts is certain.

"It tells you something," he said. "You can't say what particular time or what particular town."

Among other details, Klotzbach and Gray said the portion of Florida's coast stretching from the Martin-St. Lucie county line to south of Naples has a 6 percent chance of feeling a major hurricane this year. The region also has a 1-in-4 chance of experiencing a hurricane of any strength, and a 76 percent chance of withstanding at least a tropical storm, they said.

All those numbers are more than twice the average.

Hurricane forecaster still expects active season

Hang on to your plywood and bottled water: One of the nation's leading hurricane forecasters is predicting yet another harried season - and an especially scary one for the U.S. East Coast, including Florida.

"The odds of a major hurricane making landfall along the East Coast are more than twice the climatological average value this year," wrote a team of hurricane researchers led by William Gray of Colorado State University. Those odds are increased by factors such as the recent weak La Nina pattern of cold water in the eastern Pacific.

Gray and his associate, Phil Klotzbach, also predicted that the season will produce sharply more storms than average, for yet another year, though not as outlandish as last year's record total of 28 storms.

Their forecast calls for a total of 17 named storms this year - far above the average of 9.6. They also predicted nine hurricanes, versus an average of 5.9, and five major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher strength (the average count for those is 2.3). Last year produced 15 hurricanes, an all-time record, including a near-record seven major storms.

The predicted storm totals are the same that Gray and Klotzbach have been reporting since December.

But their predicted odds of hurricane landfalls are especially disquieting.

Florida and the U.S. East Coast have a 94 percent chance of being hit by any storm this year - and a 69 percent chance of suffering a blow from a major hurricane, Gray and Klotzbach wrote. In an average year, that region would have an 81 percent chance of being hit by any storm, and ony a 31 percent chance of a major hurricane strike.

"For the Gulf Coast, landfall probabilities are above the climatological average; however, they are not as high as those for the East Coast," Gray and Klotzbach wrote.

On the Web:
• Gray's official forecast site

Be Hurricane Aware

If you are HURRICANE AWARE you will be able to answer these three questions:

1. What are the Hurricane Hazards?
Storm Surge, Marine Hazards, Tornadoes, High Winds, and Inland Flooding

2. What does it mean to you?
Do you live in a Surge Zone? On a Barrier Island? In an area prone to flooding? In a strong sturdy home?

3. What actions should you take to be prepared?
Family Disaster Plan, Disaster Supply Kit, Secure your home, Have a place to go, and Stay Aware

TAKING ACTION is as easy as 1-2-3:

1 - BEFORE

Before Hurricane Season Starts YOU SHOULD:

• Assemble your Disaster Supply Kit.
These items are often scattered around your home and simply need to be brought together into one location.
• Write out your Family Disaster Plan.
Discuss the possible hazards with your family. Determine if you are in an evacuation area. Identify an out-of-town family contact.

2 - WATCH

When a Hurricane Watch is issued YOU SHOULD:

• Check your Disaster Supply Kit.
Make sure nothing is missing. Determine if there is anything you need to supplement your kit. Replenish your water.
• Activate your Family Disaster Plan.
Protective measures should be initiated, especially those actions that require extra time (for example, securing a boat or leaving a barrier island).

3 - WARNING

When a Hurricane Warning is issued YOU SHOULD:

• Ready your Disaster Supply Kit for use.
If you need to evacuate, you should bring your Supply Kit with you.
• Use your Family Disaster Plan.
Your family should be in the process of completing protective actions and deciding the safest location to be during the storm.

Be Prepared

"Preventing the loss of life and minimizing the damage to property from hurricanes are responsibilities that are shared by all."

Throughout this Web site, information has been provided regarding actions that you can take based on specific hurricane hazards. The most important thing that you can do is to be informed and prepared. Disaster prevention includes both being prepared as well as reducing damages (mitigation).

Disaster Prevention should include:
• Developing a Family Plan
• Creating a Disaster Supply Kit
• Having a Place to Go
• Securing your Home
• Having a Pet Plan

One of the most important decisions you will have to make is "Should I Evacuate?"

If you are asked to evacuate, you should do so without delay. But unless you live in a coastal or low-lying area, an area that floods frequently, or in manufactured housing, it is unlikely that emergency managers will ask you to evacuate. That means that it is important for you and your family to HAVE A PLAN that makes you as safe as possible in your home.

Disaster prevention includes modifying your home to strengthen it against storms so that you can be as safe as possible. It also includes having the supplies on hand to weather the storm. The suggestions provided here are only guides. You should use common sense in your disaster prevention.

- DEVELOP A FAMILY PLAN - Your family's plan should be based on your vulnerability to the Hurricane Hazards. You should keep a written plan and share your plan with other friends or family.
- CREATE A DISASTER SUPPLY KIT - There are certain items you need to have regardless of where you ride out a hurricane. The disaster supply kit is a useful tool when you evacuate as well as making you as safe as possible in your home.
- SECURE YOUR HOME - There are things that you can do to make your home more secure and able to withstand stronger storms.
- ONLINE VULNERABILITY INFO - There are web sites that can give you information about your communities vulnerability to specific hazards. These include hurricanes as well as other weather related hazards.