Max Mayfield, director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, said there are signs of increased activity near the west coast of Africa, source of the troublesome "Cape Verde" hurricanes that grow powerful on their long trip across the Atlantic.
"The bell's going to start ringing here before long," he said in an interview last week. "There's absolutely nothing that I know of that is unfavorable (to hurricane development) in the eastern Atlantic."
Last year's wildly busy Atlantic hurricane season changed many people's expectations, but it is perfectly normal for the first two or three months of a season to be fairly quiet.
The storm season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 and the worst part of it usually is between mid-August and late October, with the peak around Sept. 10. The average season produces about 10 tropical storms, of which six develop into hurricanes.
Last year saw nine storms develop by Aug. 7, on the way to a total of 28 in a record-shattering season that lasted until early January. Hurricane Katrina, the 11th and most destructive storm of the year, hit south Florida on Aug. 25 and New Orleans on Aug. 29, sparking massive flooding in the Louisiana city and killing more than 1,300 people.
Hurricane Andrew, which was the costliest storm in U.S. history until Katrina, was the first Atlantic storm of 1992 and hit Miami on Aug. 24 that year.
"We have a lot of years that don't really get started until the middle or end of August," Mayfield said.
So far this year, only three tropical storms have formed -- Alberto, Beryl and Chris. Strong wind shear -- the difference in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere -- has disrupted some of the tropical weather systems that eventually become cyclones.
Mayfield expressed puzzlement as to why the season hasn't been a little more active.
"We're actually not sure why some of these are not developing," he said.
