Atlantic's 1st named storm forms early

The first named storm of the year formed Wednesday off the southeastern U.S. coast, more than three weeks before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters said.

Subtropical Storm Andrea had top sustained winds around 45 mph Wednesday morning and didn't appear to be much of a threat, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said. Still, a tropical storm watch was issued for parts of Georgia and Florida, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours.

"We're not looking at this system strengthening significantly," said Richard Pasch, a senior hurricane specialist at the center. "We're not viewing this as a major threat."

At 11 a.m. EDT, Andrea was centered about 140 miles southeast of Savannah, Ga., and about 150 miles northeast of Daytona Beach. The storm was moving west at about 3 mph.

Forecasters said no significant rain from the storm was expected to fall over land through at least Thursday morning. But wind-driven waves have been causing beach erosion in South Carolina, Georgia and Florida and the ocean has lapped at beachfront homes and condominiums.

Subtropical systems are hybrid weather formations that are usually weaker than hurricanes and tropical storms. They are kind of a half-breed, sharing characteristics of tropical systems, which get their power from warm ocean water at their centers, and more typical bad weather that forms when warm and cold fronts collide, Pasch said.

Forecasters said Andrea has the warm center characteristic of tropical storms but its core is not particularly well defined. In addition, its winds are farther out from the center than they would be in a tropical storm.

Typically about one subtropical storm forms each year, but they often turn into tropical storms. That doesn't appear to be the case with Andrea, senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven said. It only has a small area of warmer water to draw energy from and is also facing dry winds.

He said it wasn't unusual for the storm to form in May, outside the hurricane season that starts June 1 and end Nov. 30.

"What we call the hurricane season is a totally manmade creation. Nature doesn't always pay attention to that," Beven said.

Eighteen tropical storms and four hurricanes have been recorded in that month since 1851, and none of the hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. The earliest hurricane to strike the U.S. was Alma in northwest Florida on June 9, 1966.

Private and university forecasters have predicted that the 2007 season will be especially active, producing up to 17 tropical storms and hurricanes and a "well above average" possibility of at least one striking the U.S. The federal government plans to release its predictions May 22.

The Atlantic basin has been in a busy period for hurricanes since 1995. Some federal forecasters believe this is part of a natural cycle. But the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a U.N.-sponsored group, says global warming caused by humans has led to an increase in stronger hurricanes.

Florida in the Bull’s Eye this Hurricane Season

"We’re in for a Rough Year," Says AccuWeather.com’s Bastardi

(State College, PA - May 8, 2007) - AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi and his team expect this season’s hurricanes and tropical storms to pose a far greater threat to lives and property than last year’s, with significantly more storms striking the US.

In the AccuWeather.com 2007 Hurricane Season Forecast released today, Bastardi warns that six or seven storms will strike the US coast. This includes the possibility of multiple strikes by the same storm, such as the way Hurricanes Andrew and Katrina – both extreme examples – struck Florida before later striking the US Gulf Coast. The majority of these landfalls are projected for the Gulf Coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Cape Hatteras, NC, with the center of the bull’s eye on Florida.

AccuWeather.com forecasts 13 or 14 total storms in the Atlantic Basin, with three or more likely to be major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.

Bastardi, who in March of last year correctly forecast that the Gulf Coast would get "minimal" attention by that season’s hurricanes, said that this year’s indicators all point to the Gulf being at much higher risk for destructive tropical weather than last year. Said Bastardi, "The highest area of risk has swung southwest from the Atlantic to Florida and the eastern and central Gulf Coast regions. In past years that exhibited the same climatological patterns we expect this season, these areas were the main target of Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms". Said Bastardi, "The highest area of risk has swung southwest from the Atlantic to Florida and the eastern and central Gulf Coast regions. In past years that exhibited the same climatological patterns we expect this season, these areas were the main target of Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms".

"Some of those years also saw a storm break out of the pack and head up the East Coast, and we would not be surprised to see this scenario play out this year as well. Any storm that strikes north of Hatteras has increased potential to be a major one," he said.

Bastardi described the climatological patterns that he and his team expect to have an impact on this year’s hurricane season, including:

The occurrence of a weak La Niña – a formation of cooler–than–normal Pacific waters – in the wake of an El Niño at the end of last year
The current warm–water cycle that is occurring in the area of the Atlantic that is a breeding ground for hurricanes, as well as forecast precipitation and air pressure patterns expected during hurricane season
How spring is evolving across the North American continent
How summer is projected to evolve across the US
Forecasted air pressure oscillations over the Pacific, and diminished dry air over the tropical AtlanticMany of the climatological patterns currently occurring or projected for this hurricane season are similar to those of the 1930s through the 1950s, which was a period marked by frenzied hurricane activity. Cautioned AccuWeather.com Director of Forecast Operations Ken Reeves, "It is true that one of the patterns we are accounting for is the formation of a La Niña following the recent El Niño, but too often, the impact of a La Niña – or an El Niño – on a hurricane season is oversimplified. It is just one of many patterns that needs to be examined when predicting a hurricane season, and often not the most important one." Regarding the impact that the 2007 hurricane season is projected to have, Reeves said, "The heightened threat we foresee for Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast could have significant implications for the areas still recovering from the devastation wrought by the hurricanes of 2004 and 2005."

Added Reeves, "Those living farther up the East Coast should by no means let down their guard. While the threat there is lower than last year, ‘less risk’ does not mean ‘no risk.’ We expect at least one storm will threaten these areas."

Regarding the impact that this season will have on energy prices, Reeves said, "Any time you have hurricanes roaming the Gulf of Mexico, there is the possibility that energy production could be disrupted. This obviously could affect the prices consumers pay for gasoline and natural gas."

Concluded Reeves, "Overall, we will see more powerful storms across the board than we did last year. We will not get anywhere near the amount of storms that we did in 2005, but it is the intensity of the storms we do get that will be of major concern. It goes without saying that if I were living along the Gulf Coast, Florida, or the Carolinas, I would do all I could to make sure that my family and I were prepared for the possibility of a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. This is always prudent, but it is especially so during times such as this season, when we are likely to see above-normal storm activity."

Regarding the possibility of a tropical storm or hurricane striking the Northeast, Bastardi’s 2006 forecast still holds: the region is likely be the target of a couple of storm strikes over the next ten years. "Last year the Northeast may have dodged a bullet, but unfortunately you can only be lucky for so long. As we are in a pattern similar to that of the late 1930s through the 1950s, it is important to note that during that span the Northeast was hit by major storms." Last year, Bastardi forecast that the East Coast would be far more likely than the eastern and central Gulf to see hurricane activity, and indeed, most of 2006’s ten storms tracked farther east than in 2005 – including Ernesto, which caused a half–billion dollars in damages in the region from North Carolina to New Jersey.

In summarizing what can be expected this summer, Bastardi said, "We are living in a time of climatic hardship. We’re in a cycle where weather extremes are more the norm and not the exception. One of the ways this manifests itself is in the intensity and frequency of hurricanes and tropical storms. Last year was just a breather, because the overall pattern of increased landfalls shows no sign of reversing in the near term."

Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30.

An Early Start to the Season?

A strong low pressure system has formed off the East Coast of the United States. This system has developed central thunderstorm activity while remaining over the warmish waters of the Gulf Stream. Sea surface temperatures underneath the area of activity are below the usual threshold of 26C, however, upper level temperatures are cold enough that the storm could develop some tropical characteristics.

The forecast track moves it southwestward over the next few days. I'm showing the UKMET model here because it has been the most consistent and best forecast for this storm. This looks like classical subtropical development.