Max Mayfield to retire as director of hurricane center

Max Mayfield, whose calm voice but resolute manner guided South Floridians and millions of others through some of the worst hurricane seasons in history, will retire as director of the National Hurricane Center and intends to leave in January, he told his staff this afternoon.

''No one event has caused this,'' he told shocked forecasters during the usual afternoon ''map discussion'' to review conditions in the hurricane zone. 'I've been here 34 years and as Forrest Gump said in the movie, `I'm tired and I want to go home.' ''

The staff expected to hear only about Tropical Storm Debby and Tropical Depression 5, which is expected to grow into Tropical Storm Ernesto as it moves through the Caribbean.

Along with that, they heard the bombshell announcement, which took less than a minute.
''My last day is going to be Jan. 3,'' he told his forecasters and support staff. ``Let's give it everything we've got. Now, get back to work.''

Navy Lt. Dave Roberts, a forecaster, said: ''Four more years!'' The employees responded with a brief burst of applause. Then, they returned to work.

Mayfield, 57, has led the hurricane center and its forecasters since May 2000.He said he plans to remain in charge during the rest of the season, retire after 34 years of federal service and then consider his options.

''I don't have anything lined up,'' he said, ``and I don't want to even think about it until I get some rest.''

In the recent past, he has told friends that last year's record season and the busy season before that left him worn and that the demands of running a high-profile government operation weighed heavily on him.

Still, the decision had to have been difficult.

Shortly before accepting the post six years ago, Mayfield told The Miami Herald that it was the only job he ever really wanted.

''I'm not going anywhere,'' he said back then. ``I'll never leave the hurricane center.''This afternoon, he announced that he has changed his mind.

''Well, I was always going to retire sometime,'' he said.

Asked about the strain, Mayfield said:``It's not just the season. The battle against the hurricane is waged during the off season too, so it all takes a toll.''

He said he has given his superiors at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service plenty of notice so a successor can be chosen in a ``seamless transition.''

NOAA officials had no immediate comment, but one leading candidate to succeed Mayfield is his current deputy director, Ed Rappaport.

''The hurricane center will continue just fine without me,'' he said.Mayfield has been widely praised for his efforts in recent years and became the most visible forecaster in government service, appearing frequently in the media during hurricane crises, attending professional conferences and becoming prominent in other venues.

In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, which killed more than 1,700 people, Mayfield was summoned to testify at six congressional hearings. He and his staff won praise for their efforts to sound the alarm.

He often was asked for his autograph and frequently was asked by admirers to pose for pictures with them. Though naturally shy, he always agreed.

When one observer noted last May that he was being treated a bit like a rock star, Mayfield smiled ruefully.

''It's part of the job,'' he said. ``It helps me get the message out.''

And the message was: Be prepared and takes these hurricane threats seriously.

''I really want you to listen to me here,'' Mayfield told reporters when his appointment was made official on May 10, 2000. ``The greatest potential for loss of life is still along the coastline from storm surge. This is the dome of water that can be 50 to 100 miles wide and 15 feet deep when it makes landfall.

''People need to know their vulnerabilities,'' he said.

Born in Oklahoma, Mayfield holds a bachelor's degree in mathematics from the University of Oklahoma and a master's degree in meteorology from Florida State University.

He joined the hurricane center, now in west Miami-Dade County, in 1972 as an intern. He became a hurricane forecaster in 1988 and a senior forecaster -- one of only six -- two years later.

He was named deputy director in 1998 and became acting director in January 2000 when Jerry Jarrell retired.

Mayfield's wife, Linda, teaches at a school in Miami-Dade. They have three children.

Tropical Depression 4 Sliding South of the Cape Verde Islands

A tropical storm warning is still in effect for the Cape Verde Islands.

At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Four was at 12.8 north, 24.6 west, which is 140 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. The depression is moving west-northwest at about 16 mph. Maximum winds are estimated to be 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph, and the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 1007 millibars, or 29.74 inches of mercury.

This morning, T.D. 4 will bring squalls of heavy rain to the southern Cape Verde Islands. Several inches of rainfall will fall from this system, especially in the higher terrain of Fogo Island, where over 5 inches of rainfall can occur. Winds will continue to be gusty, mainly within the heavy squalls of rain.

Conditions in the eastern Atlantic are favorable for this depression to strengthen slowly. There is little wind shear and the clouds of dust coming off the Sahara have diminished over the last few days. The waters in this area are warm enough to support a tropical storm, but not by much; sea-surface temperatures are close to 80 degrees and this warmth cannot be found to substantial depth. The depression should reach tropical storm status sometime Tuesday, and the next name on the list for the Atlantic Basin is Debby.

Steering currents will take the depression to the west-northwest for the next few days, and the waters are not much warmer in its path during this time, so it is reasonable to expect only slow strengthening. However, when this feature reaches 40 west, which should occur Thursday night or Friday, the waters become warmer and the warmth is much deeper. So, it could strengthen considerably at that time. At this point, it appears that an upper-level trough of low pressure will begin to steer what should be a tropical storm by then on a more northwesterly path by this time, taking it into the middle of the Atlantic. However, should the storm end up farther south than forecast, then the storm can slip south of the trough and a more westerly path toward the Lesser Antilles is possible.

There is a tropical wave in the central Caribbean near 75 west, south of 19 north, moving west at about 15 knots, but there is very little shower and thunderstorm activity with this wave and it will not develop further anytime soon. Another tropical wave is close to 58 west, south of 19 north and is causing spotty thunderstorms as it tracks westward at 15 knots. However, there is no sign of organization along this wave and strong southwesterly winds causing shear will prevent this feature from developing further, as will a cloud of Saharan dust that is along and west of the wave. The same clouds of Saharan dust is choking the last feature to watch, a tropical wave that is present along 45 west, south of 19 north. It is causing just a few thunderstorms as it tracks to the west at about 15 knots.

A large batch of showers and thunderstorms are also affecting Central America. This is due to a tropical wave crossing the region. Since the wave is now primarily over land, tropical development is not expected in this area.

Atlantic hurricanes could rev up any time now

MIAMI, (Reuters) - There has been little action in the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season so far, but that may be about to change.

Max Mayfield, director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, said there are signs of increased activity near the west coast of Africa, source of the troublesome "Cape Verde" hurricanes that grow powerful on their long trip across the Atlantic.

"The bell's going to start ringing here before long," he said in an interview last week. "There's absolutely nothing that I know of that is unfavorable (to hurricane development) in the eastern Atlantic."

Last year's wildly busy Atlantic hurricane season changed many people's expectations, but it is perfectly normal for the first two or three months of a season to be fairly quiet.

The storm season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 and the worst part of it usually is between mid-August and late October, with the peak around Sept. 10. The average season produces about 10 tropical storms, of which six develop into hurricanes.

Last year saw nine storms develop by Aug. 7, on the way to a total of 28 in a record-shattering season that lasted until early January. Hurricane Katrina, the 11th and most destructive storm of the year, hit south Florida on Aug. 25 and New Orleans on Aug. 29, sparking massive flooding in the Louisiana city and killing more than 1,300 people.

Hurricane Andrew, which was the costliest storm in U.S. history until Katrina, was the first Atlantic storm of 1992 and hit Miami on Aug. 24 that year.

"We have a lot of years that don't really get started until the middle or end of August," Mayfield said.

So far this year, only three tropical storms have formed -- Alberto, Beryl and Chris. Strong wind shear -- the difference in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere -- has disrupted some of the tropical weather systems that eventually become cyclones.

Mayfield expressed puzzlement as to why the season hasn't been a little more active.

"We're actually not sure why some of these are not developing," he said.