Ernesto Leaves Cuba and Heads toward Florida

At 5:00 a.m., EDT, Tuesday, the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near 22.6 north and 78.9 west. It is just off the Cuban shoreline and is about 235 miles south-southeast of Miami, Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Ernesto was moving to the northwest at near 14 mph. The surface pressure is 1005 millibars or 29.68 inches.

A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch is in effect for the southern Peninsula of Florida from New Smyrna Beach southward on the east coast, and from Bonita Beach southward along the west coast. A tropical storm watch is in effect from Bonita Beach northward to Englewood on the Florida west coast. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch also remains in effect for Lake Okeechobee and all of the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch also remains in effect for Anddros Island in the northwestern Bahamas, the Biminis and Grand Bahama Island. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Holguin, Las Tunas and Camaguey and the Ragged Islands and Great Exuma Island in the central Bahamas.

As of Tuesday morning, Ernesto was just off the Cuban coastline on the eastern side of the island. The storm has been interacting with the 4,000-foot mountains of eastern Cuba and a weak upper-level low just southeast of Miami, Florida. This has caused the lower-level circulation around the storm to become poorly organized, and the upper-level low has fed drier air into the system causing thunderstorms to be even more disorganized. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported estimated surface winds of near tropical storm strength just of the northeastern Cuban coast during the late afternoon and evening hours of Monday. So the system remains a very weak tropical storm. Although surface reports over northeastern Cuba show nothing near tropical storm strength. We expect the lower-level circulation to redevelop along or just off shore of the northern Cuban coast this morning and into this afternoon. As the lower-level part of this system gets back over water, it should start to organize and strengthen again. The broader circulation around the storm will continue to interact with Cuba through Tuesday morning and that will limit how strong the system can become initially. However, once the system becomes better organized in the lower levels, the upper levels should shift away from Cuba due to the light upper-level winds. Once the entire system is over water, which will be around midday or early afternoon Tuesday, there is a good chance it will continue to strengthen. However, due to the long lasting encounter with land there is only a small chance Ernesto can become a hurricane before reaching the south Florida coast later Tuesday night. Ernesto will track west-northwest then more northwest during Tuesday. That will put the storm's center just south of Marathon Florida in the central Keys Tuesday evening.

An oval-shaped, upper-level high pressure area is currently located over the Southeast U.S. and northern Florida. This ridge will weaken and move eastward as a strong upper-level system moves east from the Plains. That upper-level trough has turned out to be much stronger and is moving faster than thought a few days ago. That is why the forecasted movement of Ernesto has changed so much over the past three days. The upper-level high is expected to weaken slowly and move east slowly today. This will allow Ernesto to move into South Florida late Tuesday night between Miami and Key West and move northward through the peninsula during the day Wednesday. This will lead to rain and thunderstorms over South Florida tonight and over central and South Florida during Wednesday and early Wednesday night.

Ernesto is expected to make a second United States landfall, along the Carolina coastline Friday. Ernestos will bring heavy rainfall to the northern Carolinas into the Virginias and toward the Northeast later this week.

The latest forecast, issued at 8 a.m. EDT, predicted that Ernesto would hit South Florida as a Category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds of about 80 mph. But forecasters reminded residents that intensity is very difficult to predict and Ernesto could be stronger when it arrives.

One reliable computer model favored ''the possibility of Ernesto becoming a Category 2 or even a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall along the Florida coast,'' according to forecaster Stacy Stewart of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County.

Hispaniola Puts a Beating on Ernesto - South Florida Be Prepared

A hurricane warning is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to the southwest tip of Haiti. A hurricane warning also remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Ranma, Olguin, Las Tunas and Camaguey. A tropical storm watch is now in effect for the Cayman Islands, while a tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica. A hurricane watch is also in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. The tropical storm warning is now in effect for Ragged Island and Great Exuma in the central Bahamas. A hurricane watch is now in effect for Andros Island and the northwestern Bahamas.

Ernesto continues to take a hit from Hispaniola as downsloping flow off of the western mountains of Haiti continues to entrain dry air into the circulation, causing it to remain at tropical storm strength. An upper level trough of low pressure on a west-southwest track across the Bahamas is shearing convection to the northeast of Ernesto and we may see another jump to the north of the center of circulation which may have implications on south Florida later Tuesday. Ernesto should track to the northwest away from Haiti Sunday night and over open waters and so could strengthen again into a hurricane before affecting the southern coast of eastern Cuba early Monday. It should weaken again as it interacts with Cuba Monday afternoon and Monday night, then it should enter the Florida straits on Tuesday, possibly as a tropical storm or even a depression. Strengthening is likely again as it crosses the Florida straits and our track currently takes Ernesto to the west coast of Florida Wednesday afternoon as a hurricane, although track farther to the east is possible. A combination of an upper trough of low pressure that will dig southeast across the Deep South and a retreating mid-level ridge of high pressure eastward into the southwest Atlantic will be the steering factor that takes Ernesto on a north to northeast track from western Florida to near the Carolina coast Wednesday through Friday. Model consensus is to intensify Ernesto near the southeast Coast later in the week. Hurricane conditions will be possible across the Keys Tuesday and Tuesday night, southwest Florida Tuesday night into Wednesday, and across western Florida during the day Wednesday. If Ernesto were to track farther east, then widespread heavy rain and possible hurricane conditions could affect the northwest Bahamas and south Florida later Tuesday into Wednesday. A track farther to the west across the Gulf of Mexico could lead to futher strengthening and a bigger impact upon landfall.

There is one other feature to watch in the tropical Atlantic today. Weak low pressure is centered in the open Atlantic near 18 north, 33 west, drifting westward at about 12 knots. There are just a few thunderstorms present near this area of low pressure; dry air and dust from the Sahara are currently preventing development. However, conditions will gradually become more favorable as it tracks westward, so development is possible here in a few days' time.

Hispaniola Puts a Beating on Ernesto - Eyes South Florida

A hurricane warning is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to the southwest tip of Haiti. A hurricane warning is also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Ranma, Olguin, Las Tunas and Camaguey. A tropical storm watch is now in effect for the Cayman Islands, while a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A hurricane watch is also in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas.

At 8 p.m., EDT, Sunday, the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near 18.2 north and 74.4 west. It is very near the southwestern tip of Haiti or about 140 miles south-southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Ernesto was moving to the northwest at near 7 mph. The surface pressure is 1004 millibars of 29.65 inches.

Ernesto took a hit from Hispaniola as downsloping flow off of the mountains caused drier air to become entrained into the circulation so it weakened to a tropical storm. It will track to the northwest away from Haiti tonight and over open waters and could strengthen again into a hurricane before affecting southeast Cuba tomorrow. It should weaken again as it interacts with Cuba tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, then it should enter the Florida straits on Tuesday, possibly as a tropical storm or even a depression. Strengthening is likely again as it crosses the Florida straits and our track currently takes Ernesto to the west coast of Florida Wednesday afternoon as a hurricane. A combination of an upper trough of low pressure digging southeast across the Deep South and a retreating mid-level ridge of high pressure eastward into the southwest Atlantic will be the steering factor that takes Ernesto on a north to northeast track from western Florida to near the Carolina coast Wednesday through Friday. Model consensus is to intensify Ernesto near the southeast Coast later in the week. Hurricane conditions will be possible across the Keys Tuesday and Tuesday night, likely across southwest Florida Tuesday night into Wednesday, and across western Florida during the day Wednesday. If Ernesto were to track farther east, then widespread heavy rain and strong winds could affect much of the peninsula from south to north later Tuesday into Wednesday. If it were to track farther west and stay over the open Gulf longer, it could strengthen even more and have a bigger impact at landfall.

Ernesto will continue to cause life-threatening heavy flooding rains and mudslides over Hispaniola through Sunday night, especially across Haiti. These conditions will move into southeast Cuba Sunday night and spread from east to west across the eastern half of the island during the day Monday. Damaging winds will mainly affect coastal areas and the higher terrain through Monday. Coastal flooding from a storm surge will continue along the south coast of Haiti Sunday night and should affect the southern coast of eastern Cuba later Sunday night into Monday, including Guantanomo Bay. Heavy flooding rains, damaging winds, and coastal flooding should spread into the Keys on Tuesday and then across southern Florida Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

As of 5 p.m., EDT, Sunday, the center of Tropical Depression Debby was near 31.5 north and 48.6 west, or 1,300 miles west-southwest of the Azores. Debby was moving to the north at 17 mph with estimated maximum-sustained winds of 30 mph. The central pressure is estimated as being around 1012 millibars, or 29.88 inches. Debby will curve to the northeast over the next few days as it loses tropical characteristics, but it will become part of a significant storm system over the northern Atlantic.

There is one other feature to watch in the tropical Atlantic today. Weak low pressure is centered in the open Atlantic near 18 north, 33 west, drifting westward at about 12 knots. There are just a few thunderstorms present near this area of low pressure; dry air and dust from the Sahara are currently preventing development. However, conditions will gradually become more favorable as it tracks westward, so development is possible here in a few days' time.

Hurricane ERNESTO Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Cone

Hurricane Ernesto Threatens South Florida

Hurricane Ernesto gathers strength as it steams through the central Caribbean toward Jamaica and threatens to enter the Gulf of Mexico as the first hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic season. Ernesto could grow into a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday, menacing a broad swath of the Gulf Coast including hurricane-ravaged New Orleans, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami forecasts. Category 3 hurricane Katrina struck the city a year ago Tuesday. Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba issue hurricane watches as the storm's winds grow to near 60 mph. At 11 p.m. Ernesto is about 125 miles southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and moving west-northwest at about 14 mph.

Visitors ordered to leave the Keys because of Hurricane Ernesto

Visitors ordered to leave the Keys because of Hurricane Ernesto
KEY WEST, Fla. — Visitors were ordered to leave the Florida Keys on Sunday because of the possibility that Hurricane Ernesto could threaten the island chain, emergency officials said.

The Monroe County Emergency Management office told tourists with immediate plans to travel to the Keys to postpone their trips and ordered those already in the island chain to leave.

All travel trailers and recreational vehicles also were ordered off the islands immediately.