La Nina may form, but timing and strength uncertain

A La Nina weather anomaly may be forming in the equatorial Pacific, but a fog of unpredictability enshrouds when it may strike and how strong it might be, according to the Climate Prediction Center of the U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.

In its monthly update issued Thursday, the center said "atmospheric and oceanic conditions are consistent with a trend towards a Pacific cold (La Nina) episode."

The formation of La Nina could lead to more storms in the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, forecasters say.

The weather anomaly could occur between May and July of this year.

However, the latest computer models "indicate considerable uncertainty as to when La Nina might develop and how strong it might be," according to the CPC.

La Nina is less famous than El Nino, during which waters in the Pacific turn abnormally warm.

That warming could wreak havoc in the weather across the Asia-Pacific region, causing flooding in Peru and Ecuador in South America and withering drought in Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

El Nino also spurs stronger wind shear in the Atlantic basin. This greatly hindered storm formation in 2006 when only 10 occurred, sharply lower than the record 28 storms of the year before which included monsters like hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

La Nina has the opposite effect, and U.S. government and private forecasters said it may cause a higher-than-normal number of hurricanes. Most predictions pegged the number of storms this year at 17.

El Nino means literally "little boy" in Spanish. The name was used by Latin American anchovy fishermen in the 19th century who first noticed the anomaly because it usually peaked during Christmas.

The last La Nina occurred from 1998 to 2001, leading to drought across much of the western United States.

The CPC forecast is available on: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_a dvisory/ensodisc.html

Colorado State University scientists foresee a "very active" storm season

With El Nino no longer running interference, more hurricanes and tropical storms are expected this summer, forecasters say.

Scientists at Colorado State University say the dissipation of the El Nino weather pattern in the Pacific in recent months is likely to bring more hurricanes sweeping up the Atlantic coast, beginning in June.

Whether the culprit is global climate change or just the result of cyclical patterns, this year's hurricane season is likely to be bad, the forecasters say.

"We are predicting a very active season this year," said Philip Klotzbach, a research associate in the atmospheric science department at Colorado State.

The season that begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30. For a storm to merit an official name, it must have sustained winds of 39 mph. It's a hurricane at 74 mph.

The Colorado State report is the first of three traditional hurricane forecasts. AccuWeather.com is due to issue a forecast in May, followed by the National Weather Service's National Hurricane Center on May 22.

Klotzbach and forecaster William Gray are predicting 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, five of which will be Category 3 storms with winds of at least 111 mph.

The number of storms predicted is almost twice the long-term average. For the record, that's 9.6 named storms, 5.9 of which are hurricanes, including 2.3 major hurricanes.

Still, the report said, the East Coast isn't likely to be hit as hard as it was in 2004 or 2005, when a series of hurricanes - including Katrina - battered Florida and the Gulf Coast.

Forecasters concede that this is an inexact science. In April 2006, the Colorado group predicted nine hurricanes for 2006, but the season brought only five - none of which made landfall in the U.S.

In 2007, forecasters say, there's a 74 percent chance that at least one Category 3 will strike the U.S.

Items to have on hand in the event of severe tropical storms

1. Car tank filled with gasoline.
2. Extra ice in freezer.
3. Special infant needs - diapers, bottles and formula, medicine.
4. Camera and film; extra batteries.
5. Sterno fuel and unit; charcoal.
6. Extra drinking water.
7. Tub filled with water.
8. Pets inside or otherwise protected.
9. Loose outside objects stored or secured.
10. First-aid kit and manuals.
11. Tree branches tied or cut.
12. TV antenna taken down.
13. Fire extinguisher.
14. Flashlight or lantern, extra batteries.
15. Radio, extra batteries.
16. Raingear, change of clothing; heavy/sturdy boots or shoes; work gloves.
17. Extra cash/credit cards.
18. Personal hygiene items.
19. Medications and specific medical information.
20. Pantry well stocked: canned goods, dry milk, dry cereals and baby food, powered drinks, bread; non-electric can opener; plastic utensils; garbage bags.

Forecasters see very active 2007 hurricane season

DENVER - The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be "very active," with nine hurricanes and a good chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coast, a top researcher said today.

Forecaster William Gray said he expects 17 named storms in all this year, five of them major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast this year: 74 percent, compared with the average of 52 percent over the past century, he said.

Last year, Gray's forecast and government forecasts were higher than what the Atlantic hurricane season produced.

There were nine named Atlantic storms in 2006 and five hurricanes, two of them major, in what was considered a "near normal" season. None of those hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast - only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945.

Gray's research team at Colorado State University said an unexpected late El Nino contributed to the calmer season last year. El Niño - a warming in the Pacific Ocean - has far-reaching effects that include changing wind patterns in the eastern Atlantic, which can disrupt the formation of hurricanes there.

A weak to moderate El Niño occurred in December and January but dissipated rapidly, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team.

"We do not think that's going to be an inhibiting factor this year," Klotzbach said.

The team's forecasts are based on global oceanic and atmospheric conditions.

The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, averages 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

The devastating 2005 season set a record with 28 named storms, 15 of them hurricanes. Four of those hurricanes hit the U.S. coast, the worst among them Katrina, which devastated New Orleans and leveled parts of the Gulf Coast region.

Gray has spent more than 40 years in tropical weather research. He heads the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State.