An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper level trough has been the main focus of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin the past few days. Some shear continues to limit the organization of this system overall. In addition there appear to be two centers of circulation competing with each other. Another limiting factor is that the surface pressure remains relatively high across the region and will have to lower considerably before the system would truly become a serious threat. Computer models suggest the the shear will relax some over the next couple of days, so the system is expected to become a bit better organized. Steering winds should eventually take this system to the west or northwest and at the least rainfall in the path of this system should be enhanced. As this tropical moisture feeds into the eastern United States, it will interact with a stalled frontal boundary, resulting in heavy rainfall. It is still too early to tell where the heavy rain is most likely, but keep chacking back here for the latest details on this system.
There is a tropical waves at 57 West moving west at 15-20 kts. and another waves at 82 West moving west at 10-15 kts. There is no organization with either of these waves and so the remainder of the Atlantic Basin outside of the area near the Bahamas should be fairly tranquil the next few days.
