A hurricane warning is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to the southwest tip of Haiti. A hurricane warning also remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Ranma, Olguin, Las Tunas and Camaguey. A tropical storm watch is now in effect for the Cayman Islands, while a tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica. A hurricane watch is also in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. The tropical storm warning is now in effect for Ragged Island and Great Exuma in the central Bahamas. A hurricane watch is now in effect for Andros Island and the northwestern Bahamas.
Ernesto continues to take a hit from Hispaniola as downsloping flow off of the western mountains of Haiti continues to entrain dry air into the circulation, causing it to remain at tropical storm strength. An upper level trough of low pressure on a west-southwest track across the Bahamas is shearing convection to the northeast of Ernesto and we may see another jump to the north of the center of circulation which may have implications on south Florida later Tuesday. Ernesto should track to the northwest away from Haiti Sunday night and over open waters and so could strengthen again into a hurricane before affecting the southern coast of eastern Cuba early Monday. It should weaken again as it interacts with Cuba Monday afternoon and Monday night, then it should enter the Florida straits on Tuesday, possibly as a tropical storm or even a depression. Strengthening is likely again as it crosses the Florida straits and our track currently takes Ernesto to the west coast of Florida Wednesday afternoon as a hurricane, although track farther to the east is possible. A combination of an upper trough of low pressure that will dig southeast across the Deep South and a retreating mid-level ridge of high pressure eastward into the southwest Atlantic will be the steering factor that takes Ernesto on a north to northeast track from western Florida to near the Carolina coast Wednesday through Friday. Model consensus is to intensify Ernesto near the southeast Coast later in the week. Hurricane conditions will be possible across the Keys Tuesday and Tuesday night, southwest Florida Tuesday night into Wednesday, and across western Florida during the day Wednesday. If Ernesto were to track farther east, then widespread heavy rain and possible hurricane conditions could affect the northwest Bahamas and south Florida later Tuesday into Wednesday. A track farther to the west across the Gulf of Mexico could lead to futher strengthening and a bigger impact upon landfall.
There is one other feature to watch in the tropical Atlantic today. Weak low pressure is centered in the open Atlantic near 18 north, 33 west, drifting westward at about 12 knots. There are just a few thunderstorms present near this area of low pressure; dry air and dust from the Sahara are currently preventing development. However, conditions will gradually become more favorable as it tracks westward, so development is possible here in a few days' time.
