A hurricane warning is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to the southwest tip of Haiti. A hurricane warning is also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Ranma, Olguin, Las Tunas and Camaguey. A tropical storm watch is now in effect for the Cayman Islands, while a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A hurricane watch is also in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas.
At 8 p.m., EDT, Sunday, the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near 18.2 north and 74.4 west. It is very near the southwestern tip of Haiti or about 140 miles south-southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Ernesto was moving to the northwest at near 7 mph. The surface pressure is 1004 millibars of 29.65 inches.
Ernesto took a hit from Hispaniola as downsloping flow off of the mountains caused drier air to become entrained into the circulation so it weakened to a tropical storm. It will track to the northwest away from Haiti tonight and over open waters and could strengthen again into a hurricane before affecting southeast Cuba tomorrow. It should weaken again as it interacts with Cuba tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, then it should enter the Florida straits on Tuesday, possibly as a tropical storm or even a depression. Strengthening is likely again as it crosses the Florida straits and our track currently takes Ernesto to the west coast of Florida Wednesday afternoon as a hurricane. A combination of an upper trough of low pressure digging southeast across the Deep South and a retreating mid-level ridge of high pressure eastward into the southwest Atlantic will be the steering factor that takes Ernesto on a north to northeast track from western Florida to near the Carolina coast Wednesday through Friday. Model consensus is to intensify Ernesto near the southeast Coast later in the week. Hurricane conditions will be possible across the Keys Tuesday and Tuesday night, likely across southwest Florida Tuesday night into Wednesday, and across western Florida during the day Wednesday. If Ernesto were to track farther east, then widespread heavy rain and strong winds could affect much of the peninsula from south to north later Tuesday into Wednesday. If it were to track farther west and stay over the open Gulf longer, it could strengthen even more and have a bigger impact at landfall.
Ernesto will continue to cause life-threatening heavy flooding rains and mudslides over Hispaniola through Sunday night, especially across Haiti. These conditions will move into southeast Cuba Sunday night and spread from east to west across the eastern half of the island during the day Monday. Damaging winds will mainly affect coastal areas and the higher terrain through Monday. Coastal flooding from a storm surge will continue along the south coast of Haiti Sunday night and should affect the southern coast of eastern Cuba later Sunday night into Monday, including Guantanomo Bay. Heavy flooding rains, damaging winds, and coastal flooding should spread into the Keys on Tuesday and then across southern Florida Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.
As of 5 p.m., EDT, Sunday, the center of Tropical Depression Debby was near 31.5 north and 48.6 west, or 1,300 miles west-southwest of the Azores. Debby was moving to the north at 17 mph with estimated maximum-sustained winds of 30 mph. The central pressure is estimated as being around 1012 millibars, or 29.88 inches. Debby will curve to the northeast over the next few days as it loses tropical characteristics, but it will become part of a significant storm system over the northern Atlantic.
There is one other feature to watch in the tropical Atlantic today. Weak low pressure is centered in the open Atlantic near 18 north, 33 west, drifting westward at about 12 knots. There are just a few thunderstorms present near this area of low pressure; dry air and dust from the Sahara are currently preventing development. However, conditions will gradually become more favorable as it tracks westward, so development is possible here in a few days' time.
