A tropical wave along 98 west and south of 20 north is flaring up showers and thunderstorms across the Bay of Campeche. This feature is looking better organized, according to the latest satellite loop, with a large, somewhat concentrated, area of deep convection. However, westerly winds aloft are too strong to allow for fast development or falling pressure. The wave is tracking to the west-northwest at 10-15 knots and will bring beneficial showers and thunderstorms to South Texas over the weekend. If this feature persists for a couple of days and becomes a depression, it could cause flooding rains over eastern Mexico. A potent tropical wave continues to affect the eastern Caribbean. It is located along 72 west and south of 20 north and is moving west-northwest at 15-20 knots. The wave is causing numerous showers and thunderstorms from Puerto Rico to the Leeward Islands, with a large area of deep convection north of Hispaniola. This convection is being aided by a broad upper-level trough, which is causing southwesterly shear over the system, actually aiding in thunderstorm development much like upper-level shear over the Plains during spring. However, this shear will not allow for tropical development, even though the upper-level trough will move back to the west over the next couple of days, as will the shear, but the wave should continue to track under the shear, slowing the development. Tropical moisture from this wave should increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms across central and South Florida later in the weekend.
Farther east, another tropical wave is located along 54 west and south of 10 north. It is moving west at 15-20 knots and shows little sign of organization. Our last tropical wave is along 38 west and south of 10 north and shows little sign of development.
