Tropical Storm Noel strengthens after hitting Cuba

Tropical Storm Noel strengthened as it began to head toward Florida and the Bahamas on Wednesday after drenching Cuba and killing at least 61 people with surging floodwaters and mudslides in the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

The death toll from days of downpours in the Dominican Republic, in particular, begun to climb as emergency workers fanned out to bring aid to towns and villages cut off by raging rivers and inundated by chest-high floods.

Forty-one people were confirmed dead and another 33 were missing while at least 25,540 people were homeless and 6,300 homes had been destroyed, said Luis Luna Paulino, head of the Dominican Republic's emergency operations center.

Forecasters projected the storm would veer northeast over the Bahamas on Thursday, away from Florida and well clear of U.S. oil and gas installations in the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane forecast out day before season's start

FORT COLLINS, Colo. — With the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season a few hours away, researcher William Gray released his newest forecast Thursday still showing an expectation for 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, five of them intense.

Gray, based at Colorado State University, described it as a very active season. He said there was a 74 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere on the U.S. coast.

There is a 50 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, according to the new forecast; the long-term average is 31 percent.
The chance of a major hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville, Texas, is 49 percent; the long-term average is 30 percent. There is also an above-average chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean, according to the forecast.

Thursday's forecast was largely unchanged from Gray's last forecast, released in early April.

"We expect an above-average hurricane season," said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team and lead author of the forecast.

The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, averages 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

There were 10 named Atlantic storms last year and five hurricanes, two of them major. None of the hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast.

The devastating 2005 season set a record with 28 named storms, 15 of them hurricanes. Four hurricanes hit the U.S. coast, the worst among them Katrina, which devastated parts of the Gulf Coast.

NOAA predicts above normal 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season

13 to 17 Named Storms Predicted

May 22, 2007 — Experts at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are projecting a 75 percent chance that the Atlantic Hurricane Season will be above normal this year—showing the ongoing active hurricane era remains strong. With the start of the hurricane season upon us, NOAA recommends those in hurricane-prone regions to begin their preparation plans.

"For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.

Climate patterns responsible for the expected above normal 2007 hurricane activity continue to be the ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set of ocean and atmospheric conditions that spawn increased Atlantic hurricane activity), warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the El Niño/La Niña cycle.

Last year, seasonal hurricane predictions proved to be too high when an unexpected El Niño rapidly developed and created a hostile environment for Atlantic storms to form and strengthen. When storms did develop, steering currents kept most of them over the open water and away from land.

"There is some uncertainty this year as to whether or not La Niña will form, and if it does how strong it will be," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. "The Climate Prediction Center is indicating that La Niña could form in the next one to three months. If La Niña develops, storm activity will likely be in the upper end of the predicted range, or perhaps even higher depending on how strong La Niña becomes. Even if La Niña does not develop, the conditions associated with the ongoing active hurricane era still favor an above-normal season."

Bell also noted that pre-season storms, such as Subtropical Storm Andrea in early May, are not an indicator of the hurricane season ahead. "With or without Andrea, NOAA's forecast is for an above normal season."

"With expectations for an active season, it is critically important that people who live in East and Gulf coastal areas as well as the Caribbean be prepared," said Bill Proenza, NOAA National Hurricane Center director. "Now is the time to update your hurricane plan, not when the storm is bearing down on you."

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity occurring August through October. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center will issue an updated seasonal forecast in August just prior to the historical peak of the season.

The Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlook is an official forecast product of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Instituted in 1998, this outlook is produced in collaboration with NOAA scientists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, NOAA National Hurricane Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division and the NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. The NOAA National Hurricane Center has hurricane forecasting responsibilities for the Atlantic as well as the East Pacific basins. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center, NOAA National Hurricane Center and the NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center are three of the NOAA National Weather Service's nine NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which provides the United States with first alerts of weather, climate, ocean and space weather events.

NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is celebrating 200 years of science and service to the nation. From the establishment of the Survey of the Coast in 1807 by Thomas Jefferson to the formation of the Weather Bureau and the Commission of Fish and Fisheries in the 1870s, much of America's scientific heritage is rooted in NOAA. NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 60 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.

Eye Of The Hurricane Reveals A New Power Source

Science Daily — In the eye of a furious hurricane, the weather is often quite calm and sunny. But new NASA research is providing clues about how the seemingly subtle movement of air within and around this region provides energy to keep this central "powerhouse" functioning.

Using computer simulations and observations of 1998's Hurricane Bonnie in southern North Carolina, scientists were able to get a detailed view of pockets of swirling, warm humid air moving from the eye of the storm to the ring of strong thunderstorms in the eyewall that contributed to the intensification of the hurricane.

The findings suggest that the flow of air parcels between the eye and eye wall - largely believed trivial in the past - is a key element in hurricane intensity and that there's more to consider than just the classic "in-up-and-out" flow pattern. The classic pattern says as air parcels flow "in" to the hurricane's circulation, they rise "up," form precipitating clouds and transport warm air to the upper atmosphere before moving "out" into surrounding environmental air.

"Our results improve understanding of the mechanisms that play significant roles in hurricane intensity," said Scott Braun, research meteorologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. "The spinning flow of air parcels - or vortices - in the eye can carry very warm, moist eye air into the eyewall that acts as a turbocharger for the hurricane heat engine." The research appears in the June 2007 issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences.

"While the 'in-up-and out' pattern has been the prevailing paradigm for the past five decades, when you closely examine intense hurricanes it's apparent that a second family of moist air parcels often travels from the border of the eyewall to the eye, where it picks up moisture from the ocean surface," said co-author Michael Montgomery, professor of meteorology at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, Calif. "These moisture-enriched air parcels then rather quickly return to the main eyewall and collectively raise the heat content of the lower eyewall cloud, similar to increasing the octane level in auto fuel."

The researchers analyzed thousands of virtual particles to track the movement of air between the eye and eyewall, and between the eyewall and its outside environment. To uncover the impact of these particles on storm intensity, they used a simulation of Hurricane Bonnie from a sophisticated computer model and data gathered during the NASA Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX).

The simulation has also helped to explain the formation of deep "hot towers" observed in Bonnie and many other hurricanes by NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. TRMM carries the first and only space-based precipitation radar that allows researchers to peer through clouds and get a 3-D view of storm structure. It captured a particularly deep hot tower in Bonnie as the storm intensified several days before striking North Carolina.

Hot towers are deep, thick clouds that reach to the top of the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere, usually about ten miles high in the tropics. The updrafts within these "towers" act like express elevators, accelerating the movement of energy that boosts hurricane strength, and are called "hot" because of the large amount of latent heat they release as water vapor is condensed into cloud droplets. Deep hot towers in the eyewall are usually associated with a strengthening storm.

In previous research, Braun, Montgomery, and Zhaoxia Pu of the University of Utah, Salt Lake City, found a direct relationship between these deep hot towers and the intense vortices inside the eye. "The vortices were shown to be especially crucial in providing the focus and lift needed for hot tower formation and add insight into when and where hot towers will develop in storms," said Braun. The study was published in the January 2006 CAMEX special issue of the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences.

Vortices are created in response to the rapid change in wind speed from the fierce eyewall to the calm eye. Near the surface, air spiraling inward collides with these vortices to force air up, forming updrafts. Strong updrafts in the eyewall carry moisture much higher than normal and help create hot towers.

The current study suggests that in addition to providing lift, these vortices also feed high energy air from the low-level eye into the eyewall, boosting the strength of the updrafts. This transfer of energy allows the storm to remain stronger than expected, particularly when encountering weakening influences, including cooler ocean water temperatures and wind shear, the change in the direction and speed of winds with altitude.

"This discovery may help explain why strong storms can remain intense for several hours or longer after encountering conditions that usually bring weakening," said Montgomery. "Ongoing research will add to our understanding of the dynamics associated with storm intensity so that we can pinpoint the variables and processes that must be represented in numerical models to improve intensity forecasts."

When hurricane Bonnie finally began to lose strength a couple days before landfall, a significant amount of air in the eyewall was traced back - not to the eye - but to the middle levels of the atmosphere away from the storm. This inflow was caused by wind shear and brought much cooler, drier environmental air into Bonnie's circulation, acting like an anti-fuel to reduce energy in the storm and weaken its strong winds.

Despite these and other recent advances in understanding the internal workings of hurricanes, forecasting their intensity is still a significant challenge.

"Most of today's computer models that aid forecasters cannot sufficiently account for the extremely complex processes within hurricanes, and model performance is strongly dependent on the information they are given on the structure of a storm," said Braun. "We also typically only see small parts of a storm at a given time. That is why it is important to combine data from field experiments such as CAMEX with data from TRMM and other satellites. As observing technologies and models improve, so too will forecasts."

Note: This story has been adapted from a news release issued by NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center.

Atlantic's 1st named storm forms early

The first named storm of the year formed Wednesday off the southeastern U.S. coast, more than three weeks before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters said.

Subtropical Storm Andrea had top sustained winds around 45 mph Wednesday morning and didn't appear to be much of a threat, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said. Still, a tropical storm watch was issued for parts of Georgia and Florida, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours.

"We're not looking at this system strengthening significantly," said Richard Pasch, a senior hurricane specialist at the center. "We're not viewing this as a major threat."

At 11 a.m. EDT, Andrea was centered about 140 miles southeast of Savannah, Ga., and about 150 miles northeast of Daytona Beach. The storm was moving west at about 3 mph.

Forecasters said no significant rain from the storm was expected to fall over land through at least Thursday morning. But wind-driven waves have been causing beach erosion in South Carolina, Georgia and Florida and the ocean has lapped at beachfront homes and condominiums.

Subtropical systems are hybrid weather formations that are usually weaker than hurricanes and tropical storms. They are kind of a half-breed, sharing characteristics of tropical systems, which get their power from warm ocean water at their centers, and more typical bad weather that forms when warm and cold fronts collide, Pasch said.

Forecasters said Andrea has the warm center characteristic of tropical storms but its core is not particularly well defined. In addition, its winds are farther out from the center than they would be in a tropical storm.

Typically about one subtropical storm forms each year, but they often turn into tropical storms. That doesn't appear to be the case with Andrea, senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven said. It only has a small area of warmer water to draw energy from and is also facing dry winds.

He said it wasn't unusual for the storm to form in May, outside the hurricane season that starts June 1 and end Nov. 30.

"What we call the hurricane season is a totally manmade creation. Nature doesn't always pay attention to that," Beven said.

Eighteen tropical storms and four hurricanes have been recorded in that month since 1851, and none of the hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. The earliest hurricane to strike the U.S. was Alma in northwest Florida on June 9, 1966.

Private and university forecasters have predicted that the 2007 season will be especially active, producing up to 17 tropical storms and hurricanes and a "well above average" possibility of at least one striking the U.S. The federal government plans to release its predictions May 22.

The Atlantic basin has been in a busy period for hurricanes since 1995. Some federal forecasters believe this is part of a natural cycle. But the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a U.N.-sponsored group, says global warming caused by humans has led to an increase in stronger hurricanes.

Florida in the Bull’s Eye this Hurricane Season

"We’re in for a Rough Year," Says AccuWeather.com’s Bastardi

(State College, PA - May 8, 2007) - AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi and his team expect this season’s hurricanes and tropical storms to pose a far greater threat to lives and property than last year’s, with significantly more storms striking the US.

In the AccuWeather.com 2007 Hurricane Season Forecast released today, Bastardi warns that six or seven storms will strike the US coast. This includes the possibility of multiple strikes by the same storm, such as the way Hurricanes Andrew and Katrina – both extreme examples – struck Florida before later striking the US Gulf Coast. The majority of these landfalls are projected for the Gulf Coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Cape Hatteras, NC, with the center of the bull’s eye on Florida.

AccuWeather.com forecasts 13 or 14 total storms in the Atlantic Basin, with three or more likely to be major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.

Bastardi, who in March of last year correctly forecast that the Gulf Coast would get "minimal" attention by that season’s hurricanes, said that this year’s indicators all point to the Gulf being at much higher risk for destructive tropical weather than last year. Said Bastardi, "The highest area of risk has swung southwest from the Atlantic to Florida and the eastern and central Gulf Coast regions. In past years that exhibited the same climatological patterns we expect this season, these areas were the main target of Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms". Said Bastardi, "The highest area of risk has swung southwest from the Atlantic to Florida and the eastern and central Gulf Coast regions. In past years that exhibited the same climatological patterns we expect this season, these areas were the main target of Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms".

"Some of those years also saw a storm break out of the pack and head up the East Coast, and we would not be surprised to see this scenario play out this year as well. Any storm that strikes north of Hatteras has increased potential to be a major one," he said.

Bastardi described the climatological patterns that he and his team expect to have an impact on this year’s hurricane season, including:

The occurrence of a weak La Niña – a formation of cooler–than–normal Pacific waters – in the wake of an El Niño at the end of last year
The current warm–water cycle that is occurring in the area of the Atlantic that is a breeding ground for hurricanes, as well as forecast precipitation and air pressure patterns expected during hurricane season
How spring is evolving across the North American continent
How summer is projected to evolve across the US
Forecasted air pressure oscillations over the Pacific, and diminished dry air over the tropical AtlanticMany of the climatological patterns currently occurring or projected for this hurricane season are similar to those of the 1930s through the 1950s, which was a period marked by frenzied hurricane activity. Cautioned AccuWeather.com Director of Forecast Operations Ken Reeves, "It is true that one of the patterns we are accounting for is the formation of a La Niña following the recent El Niño, but too often, the impact of a La Niña – or an El Niño – on a hurricane season is oversimplified. It is just one of many patterns that needs to be examined when predicting a hurricane season, and often not the most important one." Regarding the impact that the 2007 hurricane season is projected to have, Reeves said, "The heightened threat we foresee for Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast could have significant implications for the areas still recovering from the devastation wrought by the hurricanes of 2004 and 2005."

Added Reeves, "Those living farther up the East Coast should by no means let down their guard. While the threat there is lower than last year, ‘less risk’ does not mean ‘no risk.’ We expect at least one storm will threaten these areas."

Regarding the impact that this season will have on energy prices, Reeves said, "Any time you have hurricanes roaming the Gulf of Mexico, there is the possibility that energy production could be disrupted. This obviously could affect the prices consumers pay for gasoline and natural gas."

Concluded Reeves, "Overall, we will see more powerful storms across the board than we did last year. We will not get anywhere near the amount of storms that we did in 2005, but it is the intensity of the storms we do get that will be of major concern. It goes without saying that if I were living along the Gulf Coast, Florida, or the Carolinas, I would do all I could to make sure that my family and I were prepared for the possibility of a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. This is always prudent, but it is especially so during times such as this season, when we are likely to see above-normal storm activity."

Regarding the possibility of a tropical storm or hurricane striking the Northeast, Bastardi’s 2006 forecast still holds: the region is likely be the target of a couple of storm strikes over the next ten years. "Last year the Northeast may have dodged a bullet, but unfortunately you can only be lucky for so long. As we are in a pattern similar to that of the late 1930s through the 1950s, it is important to note that during that span the Northeast was hit by major storms." Last year, Bastardi forecast that the East Coast would be far more likely than the eastern and central Gulf to see hurricane activity, and indeed, most of 2006’s ten storms tracked farther east than in 2005 – including Ernesto, which caused a half–billion dollars in damages in the region from North Carolina to New Jersey.

In summarizing what can be expected this summer, Bastardi said, "We are living in a time of climatic hardship. We’re in a cycle where weather extremes are more the norm and not the exception. One of the ways this manifests itself is in the intensity and frequency of hurricanes and tropical storms. Last year was just a breather, because the overall pattern of increased landfalls shows no sign of reversing in the near term."

Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30.

An Early Start to the Season?

A strong low pressure system has formed off the East Coast of the United States. This system has developed central thunderstorm activity while remaining over the warmish waters of the Gulf Stream. Sea surface temperatures underneath the area of activity are below the usual threshold of 26C, however, upper level temperatures are cold enough that the storm could develop some tropical characteristics.

The forecast track moves it southwestward over the next few days. I'm showing the UKMET model here because it has been the most consistent and best forecast for this storm. This looks like classical subtropical development.

Global warming may spawn wind shear able to hobble hurricanes, study finds

In the doomsday catastrophe of global warming - when Mar-a-Lago is submerged, Lake Okeechobee is an ocean bay and the Wellington polo fields are oceanfront property - rises a glimmer of good news.

Hurricanes spawned in the Atlantic Ocean may not be as monstrous or intense as some scientists have predicted.

Could global warming be a good thing for South Florida or whatever's left of it?

A pair of climatologists, one at the University of Miami and one in Princeton, N.J., think so.

"The environmental changes found here do not suggest a strong increase in tropical Atlantic hurricane activity during the 21st century," said coauthor Brian Soden, associate professor of meteorology and physical oceanography at the Rosenstiel School at the University of Miami.

Ever-warming seas - the very reason for more and bigger hurricanes - may foster milder winds in the Pacific Ocean, resulting in more wind shear in the Atlantic basin, stunting the growth of storms and slicing through those that do form.

"That's good for whatever part of Florida will still be above sea level," said Assistant Palm Beach County Administrator Vince Bonvento, who heads emergency management efforts.

Soden and lead author Gabriel Vecchi studied 100-year projections made by 18 global computer models to reach their findings, which will be published today in the American Geophysical Union's Geophysical Research Letters.

This is the first study to say that wind shear may counteract the increase in numbers and strength of hurricanes caused by global warming. "In fact, the wind shear changes are driven by global warming," Soden said.

"The collection of models consistently showed an increase in wind shear over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific," he said.

On the other hand, the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean would receive the effect of warmer ocean water and less wind shear: the super storms.

The study concentrated on wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and its correlation with the Pacific Walker circulation, the immense loop of winds that affects climate across the globe. The slower the Walker circulation, the stronger the wind shear.

North of the equator, hurricanes are sheared when high-altitude westerly winds slice the tops of hurricanes pushed by low-altitude easterly winds.

Other scientists say that although Soden and Vecchi's conclusions based on the computer models are good, the models themselves aren't so good.

"Not a single model gets El NiÒo correct," said retired state climatologist Jim O'Brien, professor emeritus at Florida State University. "One has a permanent El NiÒo, and another has El NiÒo every other year."

El NiÒo, warmer-than-average Pacific equatorial water off the South American coast, helps slow the Walker circulation.

Nevertheless, O'Brien is one of the scientists who doesn't believe global warming is responsible for the current cycle of intense storms in the Atlantic. "The total number of storms worldwide is about the same, it just depends on the ocean," he said.

Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., doesn't trust the models either. "They don't have hurricanes, and they don't do El NiÒo correctly," he said. "With so little confidence, why should we believe this result?"

Even if the study's conclusions are correct on average, that doesn't mean there won't be years like 2005 with 28 named storms and seven major hurricanes.

"This certainly isn't the last word on global warming," Soden said. "There's a lot of debate about how clearly they're (connected). There will be a lot more research on this."

He also said it's not yet possible to tell how much the increased wind shear will offset the strength of storms strengthened by higher ocean temperatures.

"For those who are just being born, it's good news," said Palm Beach County's Bonvento. "For us middle-aged and older, be prepared."

N.C. State Team Predict 8-9 Hurricanes

The hurricane research team at North Carolina State University accurately predicted a mild 2006 storm season last year. More established forecasters predicted things would be much worse.

Now, this year the North Carolina State team is saying that the 2007 season will be much more active.

Researchers at North Carolina State University are in their third year of hurricane forecasting.

They said the Atlantic basin will brew 12 to 13 named storms and eight to nine hurricanes, including four or five major hurricanes.

Forecasters said there is a 75 percent chance a hurricane will make landfall along the eastern seaboard and an equally strong chance that a hurricane will hit the Gulf of Mexico coastline.

William Gray, who has become the nation's most reliable hurricane forecaster over the past 24 years, had estimated last season would produce 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, but later revised his projections downward.

The National Hurricane Center also predicted an active hurricane season, saying 13 to 16 named storms would form.

La Nina may form, but timing and strength uncertain

A La Nina weather anomaly may be forming in the equatorial Pacific, but a fog of unpredictability enshrouds when it may strike and how strong it might be, according to the Climate Prediction Center of the U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.

In its monthly update issued Thursday, the center said "atmospheric and oceanic conditions are consistent with a trend towards a Pacific cold (La Nina) episode."

The formation of La Nina could lead to more storms in the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, forecasters say.

The weather anomaly could occur between May and July of this year.

However, the latest computer models "indicate considerable uncertainty as to when La Nina might develop and how strong it might be," according to the CPC.

La Nina is less famous than El Nino, during which waters in the Pacific turn abnormally warm.

That warming could wreak havoc in the weather across the Asia-Pacific region, causing flooding in Peru and Ecuador in South America and withering drought in Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

El Nino also spurs stronger wind shear in the Atlantic basin. This greatly hindered storm formation in 2006 when only 10 occurred, sharply lower than the record 28 storms of the year before which included monsters like hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

La Nina has the opposite effect, and U.S. government and private forecasters said it may cause a higher-than-normal number of hurricanes. Most predictions pegged the number of storms this year at 17.

El Nino means literally "little boy" in Spanish. The name was used by Latin American anchovy fishermen in the 19th century who first noticed the anomaly because it usually peaked during Christmas.

The last La Nina occurred from 1998 to 2001, leading to drought across much of the western United States.

The CPC forecast is available on: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_a dvisory/ensodisc.html

Colorado State University scientists foresee a "very active" storm season

With El Nino no longer running interference, more hurricanes and tropical storms are expected this summer, forecasters say.

Scientists at Colorado State University say the dissipation of the El Nino weather pattern in the Pacific in recent months is likely to bring more hurricanes sweeping up the Atlantic coast, beginning in June.

Whether the culprit is global climate change or just the result of cyclical patterns, this year's hurricane season is likely to be bad, the forecasters say.

"We are predicting a very active season this year," said Philip Klotzbach, a research associate in the atmospheric science department at Colorado State.

The season that begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30. For a storm to merit an official name, it must have sustained winds of 39 mph. It's a hurricane at 74 mph.

The Colorado State report is the first of three traditional hurricane forecasts. AccuWeather.com is due to issue a forecast in May, followed by the National Weather Service's National Hurricane Center on May 22.

Klotzbach and forecaster William Gray are predicting 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, five of which will be Category 3 storms with winds of at least 111 mph.

The number of storms predicted is almost twice the long-term average. For the record, that's 9.6 named storms, 5.9 of which are hurricanes, including 2.3 major hurricanes.

Still, the report said, the East Coast isn't likely to be hit as hard as it was in 2004 or 2005, when a series of hurricanes - including Katrina - battered Florida and the Gulf Coast.

Forecasters concede that this is an inexact science. In April 2006, the Colorado group predicted nine hurricanes for 2006, but the season brought only five - none of which made landfall in the U.S.

In 2007, forecasters say, there's a 74 percent chance that at least one Category 3 will strike the U.S.

Items to have on hand in the event of severe tropical storms

1. Car tank filled with gasoline.
2. Extra ice in freezer.
3. Special infant needs - diapers, bottles and formula, medicine.
4. Camera and film; extra batteries.
5. Sterno fuel and unit; charcoal.
6. Extra drinking water.
7. Tub filled with water.
8. Pets inside or otherwise protected.
9. Loose outside objects stored or secured.
10. First-aid kit and manuals.
11. Tree branches tied or cut.
12. TV antenna taken down.
13. Fire extinguisher.
14. Flashlight or lantern, extra batteries.
15. Radio, extra batteries.
16. Raingear, change of clothing; heavy/sturdy boots or shoes; work gloves.
17. Extra cash/credit cards.
18. Personal hygiene items.
19. Medications and specific medical information.
20. Pantry well stocked: canned goods, dry milk, dry cereals and baby food, powered drinks, bread; non-electric can opener; plastic utensils; garbage bags.

Forecasters see very active 2007 hurricane season

DENVER - The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be "very active," with nine hurricanes and a good chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coast, a top researcher said today.

Forecaster William Gray said he expects 17 named storms in all this year, five of them major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast this year: 74 percent, compared with the average of 52 percent over the past century, he said.

Last year, Gray's forecast and government forecasts were higher than what the Atlantic hurricane season produced.

There were nine named Atlantic storms in 2006 and five hurricanes, two of them major, in what was considered a "near normal" season. None of those hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast - only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945.

Gray's research team at Colorado State University said an unexpected late El Nino contributed to the calmer season last year. El Niño - a warming in the Pacific Ocean - has far-reaching effects that include changing wind patterns in the eastern Atlantic, which can disrupt the formation of hurricanes there.

A weak to moderate El Niño occurred in December and January but dissipated rapidly, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team.

"We do not think that's going to be an inhibiting factor this year," Klotzbach said.

The team's forecasts are based on global oceanic and atmospheric conditions.

The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, averages 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

The devastating 2005 season set a record with 28 named storms, 15 of them hurricanes. Four of those hurricanes hit the U.S. coast, the worst among them Katrina, which devastated New Orleans and leveled parts of the Gulf Coast region.

Gray has spent more than 40 years in tropical weather research. He heads the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State.

Study promises better forecasts of storm strengths

In September 2005, as Hurricane Rita raged to near-record fury in the Gulf of Mexico, scientists aboard a Navy plane achieved something remarkable: a close-up view of a mysterious process that allows killer storms to gain strength rapidly.

Their observations could lead to vastly more precise hurricane forecasts in several years. And so could the unusually detailed computer model that made the research possible, say the scientists, whose findings become public Friday in the journal Science.

"I'm an absolutely, unabashed admirer of this work," said Hugh Willoughby, a Florida International University hurricane researcher who wrote a commentary about the research for the same edition of the journal.

"It shows that hurricane modeling has matured to an extent that's really surprising." Willoughby said the study shows that hurricane models can be precise enough to aid costly decisions about when to close schools, evacuate barrier islands and shut down oil rigs - if the government will make the necessary computing power available.

"When a hurricane is coming, people always overreact - except when it really matters, and then they underreact," added Willoughby, a former director of the federal Hurricane Research Division in Miami. With better forecasts, "you can make good decisions, and you don't have to agonize over them."

The researchers running the study - based at the University of Washington, the University of Miami and the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado - used the model and other high-tech imagery to direct the path of the plane as it circled Rita's eye.
That let them observe the storm at the precise time when it was shedding and replacing the band of intense winds and rain around the eye.

This change - known as the "eyewall replacement cycle" - occurs only in major hurricanes. It often signals sudden, terrifying surges in intensity, such as the one Hurricane Charley underwent in the hours before it tore into Southwest Florida as a Category 4 storm in August 2004.

Better understanding of the cycle could allow meteorologists to predict when these changes will occur, said Robert Houze, the University of Washington researcher who led the team. Never before have scientists gotten such a close view of the process, he added.

"It's very exciting that the model was able to predict and simulate the way that Rita evolved and developed an eyewall replacement," Houze said. "We could only do this with a high-resolution model."

The model used in the study, known by the cryptic name MM5, is hardly new - it has been around in various versions for decades. But the University of Miami researchers ran it at unusually high resolution, so that it could pinpoint features of the atmosphere about a mile across.

That's far more precise than what federal forecasters typically use for the models that guide the National Hurricane Center's forecasts.

"With a very coarse net, you can only catch big fish," said paper co-author Shuyi Chen, an associate professor of meteorology and physical oceanography at the University of Miami. "You have to have a very fine mesh in your computer model to actually see the eye and the eyewall."
The downside: It takes more computing power to run the models at higher resolution. On top of that, the government's hurricane models must run every six hours during a storm, and must compete with numerous other weather and climate models that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operates.

NOAA is debuting a new state-of-the-art hurricane model this coming season, but it will start out with a grid about five times wider than the one the Miami researchers used, said Frank Marks, director of the federal Hurricane Research Division in Miami. NOAA is aiming for higher resolutions, "but I don't think we're there yet," he said.

During the time the researchers were studying it, Rita became the fourth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record, with sustained wind speeds peaking at 178 mph. (Hurricane Katrina, which killed more than 1,300 people in Louisiana and Mississippi a month earlier, ranks No. 6 in intensity.)

Rita weakened to a 115 mph, Category 3 storm by the time it made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border. It directly killed seven people in the United States while causing one of the largest evacuations in the nation's history, sending an estimated 2 million people fleeing from the Texas Gulf Coast.

Dozens more died during the evacuation, including 23 nursing home patients whose bus exploded near Dallas.

Houze said the scientists planned the expeditions three years in advance, not knowing that August and September 2005 would produce some of the fiercest hurricanes ever recorded.
"We were lucky," he said.

La Nina's brewing, forecasters warn of more hurricanes

Forecasters warned Tuesday that a La Nina weather pattern — the nasty flip side of El Nino — is brewing, bringing with it the threat of more hurricanes for the Atlantic.

Officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced the official end of a brief and mild El Nino that started last year. That El Nino was credited with partially shutting down last summer's Atlantic hurricane activity in the midst of what was supposed to be a busy season.

"We're seeing a shift to the La Nina, it's clearly in the data," NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher said. La Nina, a cooling of the mid-Pacific equatorial region, has not officially begun because it's a process with several months with specific temperature thresholds, but the trend is obvious based on satellite and ocean measurement data, he said.

"It certainly won't be welcome news for those living off the coast right now," Lautenbacher said. But he said that doesn't mean Atlantic seaboard residents should sell their homes.

Forecasters don't know how strong this La Nina will be. However, it typically means more hurricanes in the Atlantic, fewer in the Pacific, less rain and more heat for the already drought-stricken South, and a milder spring and summer in the north, Lautenbacher said. The central plains of the United States tend be drier in the fall during La Ninas, while the Pacific Northwest tends to be wetter in the late fall and early winter.

Of special concern is west Texas which is already in a long-term drought, which during a La Nina will likely get worse, Lautenbacher said.

Historically, El Ninos and La Ninas are difficult to forecast, said National Center for Atmospheric Research senior scientist Michael Glantz, who studies how they effect humans.

"I don't see it as a useful forecast," Glantz said. "Every event since they've been looking at El Nino ... surprised scientists."

La Ninas tend to develop from March to June and reach peak intensity at the end of the year and into the next February, according to Vernon Kousky, NOAA's top El Nino/La Nina expert. La Nina winters tend to be warmer than normal in the Southeast and colder than normal in the Northwest.

Andrew Weaver, a meteorology professor at the University of Victoria in Canada, said NOAA's forecast looks good because the signs of a brewing La Nina are apparent just below the ocean's surface.

"La Nina is the evil twin sister of El Nino, so it's good or bad depending on where you live," Weaver said. However, in general La Ninas do not have as costly effects on humans as El Ninos do, he said.

The last lengthy La Nina, from 1998 to 2001, helped cause a serious drought in much of the West, according to NOAA drought specialist Douglas Lecomte.

"There are winners and losers, people tend to concentrate on the losers," Lautenbacher said.

Hurricane Names for 2007

For every year, there is a pre-approved list of names for tropical storms and hurricanes. These lists have been generated by the National Hurricane Center since 1953. At first, the lists consisted of only female names; however, since 1979, the lists alternate between male and female.

Hurricanes are named alphabetically from the list in chronological order. Thus the first tropical storm or hurricane of the year has a name that begins with "A" and the second is given the name that begins with "B." The lists contain names that begin from A to W, but exclude names that begin with a "Q" or "U."

There are six lists that continue to rotate. The lists only change when there is a hurricane that is so devastating, the name is retired and another name replaces it.

2007 Hurricane Names
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dean
Erin
Felix
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Noel
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

Warming linked to stronger hurricanes

Global warming has made stronger hurricanes, including those in the Atlantic such as Katrina, an authoritative panel on climate change has concluded for the first time, participants in the deliberations said Thursday.

During marathon meetings in Paris, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change approved language that said an increase in hurricane and tropical cyclone strength since 1970 "more likely than not" can be attributed to man-made global warming, according to Leonard Fields of Barbados and Cedric Nelom of Surinam.

In its last report in 2001, the same panel had said there was not enough evidence to make such a conclusion.

"It is very important" that the language is so strong this time, said Fields, whose country is on the path of many hurricanes. "Insurance companies watch the language, too."
The panel did note that the increase in stronger storms differs in various parts of the globe, but that the storms that strike the Americas are global warming-influenced, according to another participant.

Fields said that the report notes that most of the changes have been seen in the North Atlantic.
The report - scheduled to be released Friday morning - is also a marked departure from a November 2006 statement by the World Meteorological Organization, which helped found the IPPC.

The meteorological organization, after contentious debate, said it could not link past stronger storms to global warming. The debate about whether stronger hurricanes can be linked to global warming has been dividing a scientific community that is otherwise largely united in agreeing that global warming is human-made and a problem.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Kerry Emanuel, who pioneered much of the research linking global warming to an uptick in hurricane strength, looked at the original language in an IPCC draft and called it "a pretty strong statement."

"I think we've seen a pretty clear signal in the Atlantic," Emanuel said. The increase in Atlantic hurricane strength "is so beautifully correlated with sea surface there can't be much doubt that there's a relationship with sea surface temperature."

But U.S. National Hurricane Center scientist Christopher Landsea has long disagreed with that premise. While he would not comment on the IPCC decision, Landsea pointed to the meteorological organization's statement last fall.