Disturbed weather in the northwest Caribbean is being watched

An upper level system, extending from near Florida toward the southwest across the southeast Gulf of Mexico and into the northwest Caribbean Sea, continues to generate showers and thunderstorms from the U.S. southeast coast southwest into the northwest Caribbean. A surface low will devleop along a weak front moving into the southeast U.S. and become better developed near the Carolina coast later today and Saturday then lift northeast. We see no tropical development with this low. However, a tropical wave along 85 west near 22 north angles back south southwest into the northwest Caribbean. This tropical wave is interacting with the upper level system and this is leading to enhanced thunderstorms from western Cuba southward into eastern Nicarague and Honduras. Surface pressures in this area remain too high for possible development within the next couple of days and the wave is moving westward at about 7 to 8 degrees longitude per day. So, this feature will be over the Yucatan tomorrow, slow down and move into the southwest Gulf Saturday night and Sunday. There is a slight chance this system could organize in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin a tropical waves along 60 west and along 45 west are moving west at about 15kts. Both waves are surrounded by African dust at this time. This dust will continue to suppress thunderstorm development in and around these tropical waves. A new wave is emerging off the African coast just east of 20 west. t too is surrounded by dust and the thunderstorms around it will probably diminish witin the next 24 hours as it heads west.

A large area of African dust covers the eastern Caribbean eastward across the tropical Atlantic. As we have been stating all week this large area of dust is creating a strong inversion which will continue to suppress convective development. Given no large scale shower and thunderstorm development it will be very difficult for any tropical development over the eastern Caribbean into the western tropical Atlantic for the next few days.

Tropical Atlantic remains quiet

The Atlantic Basin continues to look fairly quiet. We continue to monitor an area of clouds, showers and thunderstorms over the northern Bahamas into southeast Florida. This area of disturbed weather is associated with a weak upper level low that is centered near Miami Florida. This upper level feature will move west northwest over the next 24 hours then become oval shaped and oriented northeast to southwest on Friday as an upper level system moves into the Southeast U.S.. A weak cool front supported by this upper level system dropping into the Southeast U.S. will reach northern Florida tomorrow night. This very complex weather pattern will cause a surface low to form over southeast Georgia tomorrow night. That low pressure are will move northeast close to the South and North Carolina coast during Friday and Friday night. This will not be a tropical feature at this point. However, it could become a non tropical storm system as it moves northeast Friday night and Saturday.

Elsewhere in the tropics we are monitoring tropical waves along 76 west south of 22 north, along 52 west south of 11 north and along 35 west south of 13 north. These waves are moving to the west at about 15-20 knots or about 7 degrees longitude per day. The wave along 76 west is enhancing thunderstorm development over eastern Cuba and over the southern Caribbean. But there is little shower or thunderstorm development over the middle Caribbean. We expect this wave to be along 82 west late tomorrow and near 90 west by Friday evening. This will help produce an increase in thunderstorms over the Yucatan peninsula during Friday. This wave might be something to watch over the weekend as it moves into the Bay of Campeche or the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

Florida coral battered by hurricanes and disease

DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK, Florida (Reuters) - In the azure waters of Florida's remote Dry Tortugas National Park, corals have been toppled by hurricanes and blighted by disease and a phenomenon known as bleaching.

Eight hurricanes in two years and a plague of disease that swept the Caribbean recently have damaged the colorful, thick carpets of open-water coral reefs in the 100-square-mile (260-sq-km) park off Florida's southwest coast.

With another hurricane season under way and diseases such as white plague getting an early start this year, scientists surveying the reef expressed heightened concern for the fragile corals, which are important nurseries and habitats for marine life and harbingers of the health of the seas.

"There are some areas out here that are like a parking lot, absolutely denuded," said Dr. Jerry Ault, associate professor of marine biology and fisheries at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science.

Ault supervised a team of nearly 40 divers aboard the 100-foot (30-meter) research vessel Spree recently as they conducted a three-week, $300,000 biennial census, surveying coral, fish and lobster.

The Dry Tortugas are a cluster of seven tiny islands and acres (hectares) of coral seabed located 70 miles southwest of Key West, a popular tourist island at the southern tip of the Florida peninsula.

"Since 2004, we have had eight storms that have tracked within 100 miles of the Tortugas," said Ault. "In 2005, this was ground zero for major storms.

"Are we afraid of another hurricane season? Three (bad) hurricane seasons can't be a good thing."

"Coral reefs are in a state of decline around the world," said Billy Causey, acting regional manager for national marine sanctuaries in the southeast United States. "At least we have protections in place. There's probably not a piece of coral reef real estate that is any more protected."

The Tropical Atlantic remains relatively quiet

The upper level low just east of Florida and a tropical wave along 70 west are our main concerns for any possible tropical development. At this point we don either system within the next couple of days due to strong shear and higher than normal surface pressure. The wave along 70 west is handled differently by various computer models. There is some attempt by one model to show some organization of this wave within the next 3 days. However, we don't see that on other model output. A large area of African dust that we have been stating over the past few days continues to advance westward and is now entering the eastern Caribbean. This African dust represents drier than normal air at about 10,000 feet. This tends to put a lid on thunderstorm development. This drier air is feeding into the back of the wave along 70 west and this will also hinder development.

We are tracking other tropical waves. They are along: 30 west south of 15 north, along 45 west south of 15 north and along 85 west south of 13 north. These tropical waves are moving west at 15-20 knots or about 7 degrees longitude per day. We see no support for any development by any of these waves.

Looking back a year ago for July 4-5 we had two tropical depressions one became Cindy and the other was Dennis. We have had only one tropical cyclone so far this season and this is much closer to a near normal season. We believe the reason we have not seen any quick development like last year is due to several factors. As stated above we are seeing surface pressures a bit higher than normal over the Caribbean compared to lower than normal last year. We also continue to see strong shearing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico down into the Caribbean due to frequent upper level troughs forming over the eastern U.S.. through the Caribbean. Current trends in longer range computer output suggests these conditions should persist through the next 5-7 days and perhaps longer.

Tropical Wave Impacting the Bay of Campeche

A tropical wave along 98 west and south of 20 north is flaring up showers and thunderstorms across the Bay of Campeche. This feature is looking better organized, according to the latest satellite loop, with a large, somewhat concentrated, area of deep convection. However, westerly winds aloft are too strong to allow for fast development or falling pressure. The wave is tracking to the west-northwest at 10-15 knots and will bring beneficial showers and thunderstorms to South Texas over the weekend. If this feature persists for a couple of days and becomes a depression, it could cause flooding rains over eastern Mexico.

A potent tropical wave continues to affect the eastern Caribbean. It is located along 72 west and south of 20 north and is moving west-northwest at 15-20 knots. The wave is causing numerous showers and thunderstorms from Puerto Rico to the Leeward Islands, with a large area of deep convection north of Hispaniola. This convection is being aided by a broad upper-level trough, which is causing southwesterly shear over the system, actually aiding in thunderstorm development much like upper-level shear over the Plains during spring. However, this shear will not allow for tropical development, even though the upper-level trough will move back to the west over the next couple of days, as will the shear, but the wave should continue to track under the shear, slowing the development. Tropical moisture from this wave should increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms across central and South Florida later in the weekend.

Farther east, another tropical wave is located along 54 west and south of 10 north. It is moving west at 15-20 knots and shows little sign of organization. Our last tropical wave is along 38 west and south of 10 north and shows little sign of development.

Tropical Wave Lashes Lesser Antilles and the Virgin Islands

A robust tropical wave continues to produce squally conditions across the Lesser Antilles Thursday. The wave, along 63 west and south of 20 north, is tracking to the west at 15 knots and will move into the western Caribbean later this weekend. It will bring gusty winds and numerous showers and thunderstorms to Puerto Rico today and then Hispaniola on Friday. An upper-level trough is causing a southwest shear across the eastern Caribbean and over the top of this wave so any development will be slow for the time being. The upper-level trough will back to the west over the next couple of days and so will the shear, but if the wave continues to track under the shear, then development will continue to be slow. Tropical moisture from this wave should increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms across central and South Florida later in the weekend.

Another tropical wave along 96 west and south of 20 north is moving west at 10-15 knots, but convection associated with it has greatly diminished. Moisture from this wave will bring much-needed showers and thunderstorms to South Texas over the weekend.

Farther east, another tropical wave is located along 47 west and south of 10 north. It is moving west at 10-15 knots and shows little sign of organization.

Tropical Downpours Continue in East

Low pressure continues to surge northward into the Northeast Wednesday morning, producing tropical downpours from eastern New York into New England. Gales are possible just to the east of the center as well as it moves from western Connecticut toward northern New England. But, the main story will be the flooding rain that will continue over areas that have already been hard-hit over the last couple of months.

Elsewhere in the tropics, a tropical wave is moving through Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula, and is spreading thunderstorms over much of Central America, and the northern end of the wave will cross the Bay of Campeche. There are no signs of organization with the wave at this point, but it is possible that some of this wave's moisture will be pulled into South Texas by Friday, which would result in welcome rainfall in this drought-stricken region. The weather is generally quiet over the rest of the Caribbean at this time. The only other tropical wave to watch is approaching the Lesser Antilles and will cause thunderstorms there Wednesday. This feature also shows no signs of imminent organization.

An upper-level disturbance about halfway between Puerto Rico and Bermuda will continue to move toward the northwest over the next 24 hours. This may begin to affect Bermuda with showers late Wednesday, then pass closer to the island Wednesday night or Thursday.

New threat area east of the Windward Islands

A new area worth watching has cropped up near 7N 47W, about 1050 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands. There is some heavy thunderstorm activity here and a 1012 mb low pressure area has developed. This low is moving west towards an area of higher wind shear, and is not expected to develop. Wind shear over most of the Atlantic is expected to remain seasonably high over the next week, making it difficult for tropical storm formation.

Preliminary model tracks for the low east of the Windward Islands.

Intense storms blamed on heat

Storms blamed on global warming

Global warming, not natural fluctuations in ocean temperature, was the main cause of the ocean heat that energized last year's killer hurricanes, scientists at a federally funded climate laboratory said Thursday.

As a result, continued increases in the Earth's temperature likely will lead to more "enhanced hurricane activity" in future years, said climate analysts Kevin Trenberth and Dennis Shea of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.

Hurricanes draw their energy from the ocean, and scientists on both sides of the debate agree that rising Atlantic Ocean temperatures have driven the past decade's increasingly violent hurricanes.

Last year, for example, the temperature in the tropical Atlantic, where many hurricanes originate, was about 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit above the average for the first 70 years of the 20th century.

The year produced the most named storms on record (28), forcing the National Hurricane Center to go into the Greek alphabet for names. It also brought the most intense Atlantic storm on record (Wilma), the most intense storm to hit the Gulf of Mexico (Rita) and the most destructive storm on record (Katrina).

Some experts, including National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield and Colorado State University forecaster William Gray, have discounted the effects of global warming.

They contend that higher ocean temperatures are a result of a long-term cycle known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.

A rise and fall in the ocean's temperature has been documented as far back as the late 1800s.

But in a study described in the Geophysical Research Letters, Trenberth and Shea said the current rise is only partly caused by the oscillation.

They deducted a global temperature increase that scientists have monitored since the 1970s from changes observed in the Atlantic during the same period, and concluded that very little of the increased Atlantic temperature was caused by the ocean temperature cycle.

They attributed 0.8 degrees of the extra temperature to global warming and about 0.2 degrees to the oscillation. The remainder is due to the after-effects of the 2004-05 El Niño warm-water current in the Pacific Ocean and year-to-year variability, they said.

"I don't see how the hell they can say that," said Gray, 76, professor emeritus of atmospheric sciences at Colorado State. "We're just in one of these warming trends due to the ocean circulation and there's nothing we can do about it."

But Georgia Tech scientist Peter Webster, who this year reported that rising ocean temperatures worldwide are directly linked to a 35-year trend of increased hurricane strength, said the calculations by Trenberth and Shea were "fundamentally sound."

"The Atlantic oscillation is there, but it's being out-ridden by global warming," he said.

In a separate report released Thursday, a committee of the National Academy of Sciences said that "proxy" climate records, such as the width of tree rings and the chemical makeup of ice from deep beneath the Greenland snowpack, indicate with "high confidence" that the Earth is warmer now than it has been in the past 400 years.

The academy's study was made at the request of Congress. Industry representatives and global-warming skeptics attacked a earlier proxy temperature study that concluded that the Earth's temperature varied little for 1,000 years, then in the past 25 years began to rise sharply, at an angle reminiscent of a hockey stick.

The study has played a key role in actions by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The academy panel's study said the proxy evidence provides "less confidence" in climate conditions between 900 and 1600 A.D.

It said "very little confidence" could be placed in average global temperature calculations before 900.

Area Near Bahamas Bears Watching

An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper level trough has been the main focus of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin the past few days. Some shear continues to limit the organization of this system overall. In addition there appear to be two centers of circulation competing with each other. Another limiting factor is that the surface pressure remains relatively high across the region and will have to lower considerably before the system would truly become a serious threat. Computer models suggest the the shear will relax some over the next couple of days, so the system is expected to become a bit better organized. Steering winds should eventually take this system to the west or northwest and at the least rainfall in the path of this system should be enhanced. As this tropical moisture feeds into the eastern United States, it will interact with a stalled frontal boundary, resulting in heavy rainfall. It is still too early to tell where the heavy rain is most likely, but keep chacking back here for the latest details on this system.

There is a tropical waves at 57 West moving west at 15-20 kts. and another waves at 82 West moving west at 10-15 kts. There is no organization with either of these waves and so the remainder of the Atlantic Basin outside of the area near the Bahamas should be fairly tranquil the next few days.

The Storm near the Bahamas Could Turn Tropical

A system to the north of the Bahamas may bear watching over the next couple of days. A storm in the area will attempt to become more tropical in nature during the next couple of days. Shear continues to affect the storm's strengthening, but this should relax later Friday. At this point it will be the best chance for the storm to change to more tropical features. Either way this system is expected to move toward the coast and inland later this weekend into early next week. Tropical moisture is feeding into the overall flow of the weather pattern. This means that heavy rain is likely across much of the eastern U.S. into next week.

There is a tropical waves at 56 West moving west at 15-20 kts. and another waves at 81 West moving west at 10-15 kts.

Alberto downgraded as it steams across Southeast

After splashing ashore in Florida without its once-feared punch, the remnants of the first named storm of the season churned through the Southeast early Wednesday, bringing much-needed rain and offering a tune-up for officials readying for the long hurricane season.

By early Wednesday morning, Alberto had weakened from a tropical storm to a tropical depression over South Carolina and all tropical storm warnings were discontinued, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said. The storm was expected to lose all tropical characteristics later in the day, though it was possible the storm could strengthen again.

After last year's 28 named storms and record 15 hurricanes, Tropical Storm Alberto caused a brief scare and prompted a call for more than 20,000 people to evacuate Florida's Gulf Coast. But no serious injuries or deaths were reported.

Alberto leaves thousands powerless on Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Alberto pelted Florida's Gulf Coast with rain before it made landfall Tuesday, but early reports indicated its winds, storm surge and other effects were not as serious as initially feared.

The storm's center came ashore around 12:30 p.m. near Adams Beach, about 50 miles southeast of Tallahassee, the National Hurricane Center said. Alberto's top sustained winds were 40 mph, down from 65 mph earlier in the day. The minimum wind speed for a hurricane is 74 mph.

About 21,000 homes and businesses were without power statewide and some streets flooded in coastal towns. Water levels approached several houses and businesses near Crystal River to the south. Residents gathered in calf-deep water on streets and parking lots and dropped sandbags in preparation for the afternoon high tide.

Little damage reported from Alberto in Fla

CEDAR KEY, Fla. - The first tropical storm of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season pelted Florida's gulf coast with rain Tuesday, but forecasters said Alberto wouldn't reach hurricane strength as earlier feared.

The National Hurricane Center downgraded its hurricane warning on parts of Florida's Gulf Coast to a tropical storm warning midmorning.

Alberto's top sustained winds had dropped to 50 mph, well below the 74 mph threshold for a hurricane.

Alberto weakens as it nears landfall

Thousands ordered to flee ahead of tropical storm

A slightly weakened Tropical Storm Alberto approached the northern Gulf Coast of Florida early Tuesday, with maximum sustained winds at 65 mph, the National Hurricane Center reported.

A hurricane warning was in place from the Tampa Bay area to near Tallahassee.

Forecasters urged people to quickly make "preparations to protect life and property" as the eye of Alberto neared shore.

The NHC currently predicts the storm could make landfall about midday.

Florida Gov. Jeb Bush issued a mandatory evacuation order for low-lying counties Dixie, Levy, Taylor, Citrus, Franklin and Wakulla, which are in the storm's path.

At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Alberto was about 60 miles southeast of Apalachicola and about 65 miles west of Cedar Key, moving northeast at about 9 mph. Forecasters said it is likely to continue on that path through midday.

Forecasters reported coastal storm surging up to 8 to 10 feet above normal tide levels over a large portion of the warning area -- conditions that could trigger floods and mudslides -- are expected.

Rainfall could reach 10 inches Tuesday across portions of central and northern Florida and southeastern Georgia.

The hurricane warning stretches from the Ochlockonee River south to Longboat Key.

Bush advised Florida residents in the path of the storm to ensure they have enough supplies like food, medicine, water and a full tank of gas to last at least 72 hours.

Florida state officials have reported no gas shortages and said the ports are open for now, although the port of Tampa is evaluating whether to stay open.

Hurricane warning issued for Alberto

Forecasters issued a hurricane warning for parts of Florida's Gulf Coast on Monday as the first named storm of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season quickly gained strength in the Gulf of Mexico.

The warning from Longboat Key near Sarasota to the Ochlockonee River south of Tallahassee means Tropical Storm Alberto was expected to produce hurricane conditions within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Longboat Key to Englewood.

At 11 a.m., Alberto's winds had increased to 70 mph, up from 50 mph just three hours earlier. The storm was centered about 190 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola and was moving north-northeast at about 7 mph, National Hurricane Center forecasters said.

Storm warning issued for Fla.'s Gulf Coast

TAMPA, Fla. - The first named storm of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season slightly strengthened early Monday in the Gulf of Mexico, prompting forecasters to issue tropical storm warnings for Florida's west coast.

Tropical Storm Alberto had maximum sustained wind near 50 mph but was not likely to grow into a hurricane, the National Hurricane Center said. There were no major reports of damage.

At 5 a.m. EDT, Alberto was centered about 275 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola. It was moving north-northeast at about 8 mph and could make landfall Tuesday night, forecasters said.

"Right before landfall they expect a little stronger: 55 gusts to 65. It won't be quite hurricane strength," said Ron Goodman, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center. "Things can change, but right now it's not expected to be a hurricane."

Forecasters said that up to 30 inches of rain could fall over some parts of Cuba, creating a threat of flash floods and mudslides, and that 5 to 10 inches could fall over the Florida peninsula through Tuesday. Over the Florida Keys, between 3 to 5 inches of rainfall are possible.

A tropical storm warning was issued for most of Florida's west coast, from Englewood to Indian Pass, meaning tropical storm conditions were expected there within the next 24 hours. A tropical storm watch remains in effect from south of Englewood to Bonita Beach.

The tropical depression that produced Alberto formed Saturday, nine days after the official start of the hurricane season, in the northwest Caribbean, which can produce typically weak storms that follow a similar track this time of year, forecasters said.

Last year's hurricane season was the most destructive on record. Hurricane Katrina devastated Louisiana and Mississippi and was blamed for more than 1,570 deaths among Louisiana residents alone.

This year, however, meteorologists have said the Atlantic is not as warm as it was at this time in 2005, meaning potential storms would have less of the energy needed to develop into hurricanes.

Last year's first named storm was Tropical Storm Arlene, which formed June 9 and made landfall just west of Pensacola in the Florida Panhandle.

Tropical Depression One Over The Eastern Gulf of Mexico

...Tropical depression over the eastern Gulf of Mexico...forecast to become a tropical storm...

interests in the eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph andthis track should continue through Sunday.Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher gusts mainly in squalls to the north and east of the center. The depression could become a tropical storm on Sunday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches. At this time...the main hazard associated with the depression is heavy rainfall. The depression is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over the western half of Cuba...with isolated totals of 30 inches over the higher terrain. This could cause devastating flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall
totals of 3 to 5 inches are possible over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. There is also the potential for heavy rainfall of 4 to 8 inches possible over the Florida Keys and western Florida through Monday.

First Storm Of The Season?

The 00Z Canadian develops a potent TC near Belize then shoots it north into the Florida Panhandle.

Also the 00Z Nogaps develops a closed low in the same area then moves it into the Western GOM, then dissipates it.

But other models show no such thing, and the National Hurricane Center isn't saying anything so far, telling us only: "TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY."

We will just have to wait and see.

When Is Hurricane Season In The Atlantic?

Hurricane Season in the Atlantic runs from June 1 to November 30. As you can see from the graph above, the activity ramps up in August and peaks once in early September then again in October. Persons travelling to areas near the Atlantic basin should exercise caution during Hurricane Season.